Why franchise-tagged OT Orlando Brown Jr. has no leverage with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

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Kansas Metropolis Chiefs offensive deal with and franchise participant Orlando Brown Jr. is just not attending training camp and has refused to signal his franchise tag. But, no less than for the 2022 season, the one reasonable consequence entails Brown finally reporting to Kansas Metropolis.

After the Chiefs despatched a draft decide package deal to amass Brown from the Baltimore Ravens final yr, the 26-year-old offensive lineman could imagine he has leverage — however he doesn’t. The Chiefs maintain all of the playing cards.

Orlando Brown Jr. is combating a shedding battle with the Chiefs

In April 2021, Kansas Metropolis landed Brown, a 2021 second-round decide, and a 2022 sixth-round decide from Baltimore in change for a primary, third, and fourth-round decide in 2021 and a fifth-rounder in 2022. The Chiefs reportedly felt they’d sacrificed the equivalent of the 45th overall selection to amass Brown.

That may point out that common supervisor Brett Veach and Kansas Metropolis’s entrance workplace use the basic Jimmy Johnson-devised NFL trade value chart. Most groups across the league now not use that chart as a result of it drastically overvalues early picks and locations much less emphasis on mid-round picks.

As one of the crucial analytically superior groups within the NFL, the Ravens doubtless consider trades with a mannequin nearer to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective’s chart or the Fitzgerald-Spielberger table. These charts pegged Baltimore’s return as someplace between the twentieth and twenty fifth decide within the draft.

If the Chiefs felt that they’d given up the equal of a mid-to-late first-round choice for Brown, they may have felt extra stress to increase him at any value. Different NFL gamers have been in a position to make use of related leverage to extract large paydays after being shipped to new groups. However as a result of KC believes it gave up draft selections that have been analogous solely to a mid-second-rounder, they doubtless didn’t really feel coerced into giving Brown no matter he wished.

Brown wished a commerce out of Baltimore as a result of he wished to play left deal with, and the Ravens had already made Ronnie Stanley one of many highest-paid linemen in the NFL. Brown obtained the chance with the Chiefs, and whereas he was a strong blindside protector for Patrick Mahomes, he wasn’t elite. Professional Soccer Community just lately ranked Brown as the 19th-best OT in the league.

Brown isn’t within the Trent Williams/David Bakhtiari class, however he needs to be paid like he’s. With no extension in sight, the Chiefs used the franchise tag on Brown in March, locking him right into a one-year, totally assured 2022 wage of $16.662 million.

So, the Ravens moved on from Brown fairly than pay him top-of-the-market cash. The Chiefs, as a substitute of instantly extending him, let Brown play out his contract yr earlier than deploying the franchise tag instead of a long-term deal.

And what about the remainder of the league? Kansas Metropolis used the non-exclusive franchise tender on Brown, so any rival workforce might have signed him to a proposal sheet in the event that they have been keen to sacrifice two first-round picks. That may have been an exorbitant value, however different gamers — Jalen Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil, Jamal Adams — have been all traded for 2 first-rounders in current seasons. That’s the value tag for elite expertise, nevertheless it’s clear the remainder of the NFL doesn’t maintain Brown in that regard, both.

Kansas Metropolis’s extension supply

After the Chiefs assigned Brown the franchise tag, they’d till July 15 to hammer out a brand new pact with the previous Oklahoma Sooner. Kansas Metropolis reportedly offered Brown a six-year, $139 million extension that may have made him the NFL’s highest-paid offensive deal with on an annual foundation ($23.16 million) and included a $30.25 million signing bonus. Sounds fairly cheap, proper?

Fallacious. KC’s supply contained a bloated $40+ million last yr wage that was used solely to inflate the deal’s complete worth. Brown would have by no means seen that cash. He might have obtained $95 million over the primary 5 years of the contract, however that $19 million AAV would have ranked him simply fifth amongst offensive tackles.

It wasn’t a practical proposal from the Chiefs and bordered on dangerous religion. Kansas Metropolis knew Brown wished to be the NFL’s highest-paid OT, in order that they seemingly used that in opposition to him in negotiations. This deal will make you the highest-paid at your place — simply don’t have a look at the main points! 

What are Brown’s choices?

Now that the July 15 franchise tag extension deadline has handed, Brown’s choices are extraordinarily restricted. The Chiefs might give in and commerce him, however any workforce that acquired Brown would simply step into Kansas Metropolis’s footwear. Whereas he can’t signal a brand new multi-year deal, Brown might push the Chiefs to extend his wage in 2022 or give him a no-tag clause for 2023 — however KC has no incentive to conform to both of these stipulations.

Brown hasn’t signed his franchise tender, and since he’s not technically underneath contract, he’s not topic to any fines. He’s not liable to shedding any cash whereas sitting out of coaching camp. However as sources predicted to PFN’s Aaron Wilson, Brown’s holdout might final into the preseason and all the way in which till Week 1.

Brown can miss on a regular basis he needs as much as Week 1, but when he continues to sit down out as soon as the common season begins, he’ll start hurting his pockets. As a former third-round decide, Brown has solely earned about $6.8 million in his profession. That’s actually life-changing cash, nevertheless it’s not the sort of generational wealth he’s searching for, and Brown doesn’t have tens of tens of millions sitting within the financial institution.

For each regular-season week that Brown avoids, he would sacrifice roughly $925K (1/18th of his $16.662 million wage). At that tempo, he’d quit the equal of his profession earnings earlier than Kansas Metropolis even reaches their Week 8 bye. It’s not a sound monetary resolution, and it’s onerous to think about Brown taking this path.

Brown’s best choice is to play out the 2022 marketing campaign and hope the Chiefs don’t tag him once more subsequent offseason — however the workforce could do exactly that. Kansas Metropolis might retain him from 2022-23 for a two-year value of roughly $37 million, they usually could view that as a preferable avenue to a long-term deal.

Brown’s best-case state of affairs would possibly observe the trajectories of Jaguars OT Cam Robinson and Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin, every of whom was franchised for a second consecutive yr in 2022 earlier than agreeing to an extension.

How can the Chiefs change Brown (if it involves that)?

If Brown decides to throw warning to the wind and maintain out into the common season, the Chiefs might want to discover a new left deal with. Left guard Joe Thuney has the power to shift over one spot, however Andy Reid mentioned Wednesday that Kansas City plans to keep Thuney where he is for now.

Roderick Johnson has taken first-team reps at left deal with throughout coaching camp, however he’s performed simply 610 profession snaps and spent the complete 2021 season on the Dolphins apply squad. In the meantime, fellow reserve Geron Christian has managed practically twice as many profession snaps as Johnson, and he was an efficient move blocker for the Texans in 2021.

If the Chiefs resolve to look outdoors the group to switch Brown, they’ll discover a surprisingly sturdy — no less than, for late July — free agent deal with market. Eric Fisher spent eight years in Kansas Metropolis and is aware of the employees and scheme, whereas Duane Brown can also be nonetheless obtainable. Even 40-year-old Jason Peters, who began 15 video games for the Bears final season, mentioned he wants to play one more year.




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