The Royals Take a Likelihood On Luke Weaver

Increase your hand in case you’ve considered Luke Weaver up to now month. Anybody? No? Okay. As luck would have it, he did cross my thoughts just lately. After Luis Castillo acquired shipped to Seattle, I joked on Twitter that the Merrill Kelly sweepstakes would begin, and a reply led me to check Weaver to Kelly to Castillo:

Luke ‘Merrill “Luis Castillo” Kelly’ Weaver

— Justin Choi ?? (@justinochoi) July 30, 2022

Not precisely A-list materials, I do know. However the level is that Weaver shares similarities, albeit superficial, with the 2 different pitchers. Castillo and Kelly are each fastball-changeup guys; Weaver can also be a fastball-changeup man. So in sum, the Royals have acquired a discount bin model of Kelly, who’s a discount bin model of Castillo, on the modest worth of sending infielder Emmanuel Rivera to the Diamondbacks.

Regardless of promising stuff and command as a prospect, Weaver’s profession to date has been marred by inconsistency and poor well being. He made his massive league debut in 2016, spent most of ‘17 bouncing between Triple-A and the majors, grew to become a everlasting fixture of the rotation to open ‘18 earlier than being demoted to the bullpen, and struggled with accidents in ‘19, making solely a dozen begins. Nothing occurred health-wise within the shortened ‘20 season, however a proper shoulder pressure stored him off the mound for a majority of ‘21. He’s been wholesome this season, fortunately, together with his low innings whole defined by the truth that he’s now a full-time reliever.

That doesn’t sound all too thrilling, however in case you look carefully sufficient, there’s nonetheless a very good quantity of potential left in Weaver. He’s quietly reworked his changeup, and it appears higher than ever. The desk beneath exhibits how the pitch has progressed over the previous three seasons:

The most important distinction: the changeup is getting far more drop than it used to, together with additional arm-side fade. (Right here, a decrease vertical motion quantity equals extra drop.) Regardless of a small pattern, we are able to inform this can be a real growth due to the bodily properties of the changeup; it’s spinning on a distinct axis than earlier than and appears to be benefiting from extra seam-shifted wake. That explains why stuff fashions like Cameron Grove’s are appreciative of Weaver’s efforts, viewing the brand new and improved changeup as a plus providing. He has all the time been in a position to command the gradual ball; that is the primary time he’s backed that up with enhanced motion.

However whereas the changeup has undergone a makeover, his four-seam fastball has trended in the wrong way, from good to common. Right here’s a desk just like the one above:

This time, the dearth of upward motion is working in opposition to Weaver. He’s not getting practically the identical quantity of fastball experience as he used to, which is instrumental in lacking bats. Contemplate how the lean of his fastball has shifted barely over time: As soon as at round 12:45, it’s now handed the 01:00 mark. Since a 12:00 tilt represents excellent backspin, the extra a pitch deviates from it, the much less backspin there’s. For a pitch that’s used over 60% of the time, this isn’t nice information.

I puzzled if Weaver had lowered his arm slot in an effort to throw the brand new changeup, however that isn’t the case. If that’s the case, that is probably a case of him not getting on prime of his fastball like he used to, and due to this fact a fixable subject. With the appropriate steerage, there’s an opportunity he can hold his reworked changeup and resurrect his outdated fastball. Granted, the Royals aren’t precisely famend for his or her pitching growth, however the upside of a re-tooled Weaver is sufficient to spark the creativeness of any group.

In return, Arizona receives Rivera, who’s primarily performed third base this season and has hit .237/.284/.399 (91 wRC+). The Royals might need been incentivized to let go of him on account of their crowded infield. It’s much less clear why the Diamondbacks needed in on this deal, however including a strong backup infielder beneath crew management isn’t a nasty thought, and they also’ve obliged.

Rivera’s ceiling is low — on this 12 months’s write-up of the Royals’ farm, Eric Longenhagen remarked that he’s poised “to play a smaller nook utility position” — however there’s a good ground, too. Primarily based on his minor league observe report and 200-or-so plate appearances this season, he looks as if he can present not less than a usable bat to go together with a serviceable however hardly spectacular glove.

Need one more reason to belief the bat? By way of Barrels per plate look, Rivera is likely one of the league’s most improved hitters. (Warning: shameless cherry-picking forward!) Whereas writing about Cal Raleigh, I famous that amongst hitters with minimal 100 plate appearances in each 2021 and ‘22, Aaron Judge has seen the biggest year-to-year enhance in Barrels per PA. What if we lowered that plate look requirement to, I dunno, 98? In that case, it’s time to crown a model new king, and his title is Emmanuel Rivera, whose leap from 1.0% to six.2% is a league-best. As you may might need guessed, I lowered the requirement as a result of Rivera had precisely 98 plate appearances final season — simply two shy of the minimal.

Did he progress from terrible to merely common? Sure. And does this imply he’ll hit for extra energy sooner or later? In all probability not. However supported by all these barrels, that 91 wRC+ good points a complete lot of credence and appears consultant of his true expertise stage.

Rivera’s development isn’t assured, and the identical may be stated of Weaver, who at this level is extra reclamation venture than precise back-end starter. He won’t discover his outdated fastball once more, and heck, he won’t even escape the bullpen ever once more. However the Royals and Diamondbacks are presumably swapping gamers figuring out the chance concerned, and that’s why this is likely one of the quieter deadline trades you’ll come throughout. Neither crew is contending, so there’s no speedy want for, effectively, something. An absence of urgency means the Royals can attempt to salvage Weaver, who’s beneath crew management till subsequent 12 months, and the Diamondbacks get a usable infielder simply because. It’s a bit of random, certain. However even the smallest of swaps can have which means to them.