Seminoles and Tar Heels Win Wild Ones

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Faculty soccer’s first full weekend of video games blessed us with two of most insane fourth-quarter finishes in current reminiscence. North Carolina allowed Appalachian State to attain 40 fourth-quarter factors, however the Tar Heels additionally returned a kickoff for a landing and denied the Mountaineers on a pair of 2-point conversion makes an attempt, all within the final 30 seconds of the sport, to win a 63-61 thriller. On Sunday evening, Florida State fumbled away a possibility to ice an upset in opposition to LSU and allowed the Tigers to drive 99 yards in 65 seconds to attain what would and will have been a game-tying landing to ship the sport to additional time, then blocked LSU’s additional level try with no time left to win in regulation, 24-23.

Neither the Tar Heels nor Seminoles (nor Mountaineers nor Tigers) will determine into the nationwide championship hunt, however who cares? There is no such thing as a higher technique to launch the season and showcase the absurdity of this sport than with low-stakes insanity. (Iowa will get a nod right here, too, with a 7-3 victory in which the Hawkeyes didn’t score a touchdown and gained solely 166 yards on offense, however we’ll put this one apart since their opponent was FCS South Dakota State and the sport consequence shouldn’t be included within the FEI rankings calculations.)

My crew effectivity rankings work begins with the entire document of recreation possessions in FBS vs FBS video games, then sifts out the information that issues most from the information that issues least. Step one is removing garbage possessions, the drives on the finish of a half wherein a crew intentionally runs out the clock and the second-half drives wherein one of many groups has opened up a big lead that may’t be overcome. Within the case of each the Florida State and North Carolina wins this weekend, nearly not one of the recreation possessions are categorized as rubbish time.

The second step of my course of includes breaking down every of the non-garbage possessions into the scoring worth gained and misplaced by the offense and protection, and extracting the scoring worth attributed to particular groups (discipline objectives, additional factors) and returns (on punts, kickoffs, and offensive turnovers). These are categorized as OV, DV, and SRV within the possession splits for every recreation. Offensive and defensive drive effectivity metrics are rather more intently correlated than particular groups with success over the course of a season. Although particular groups performs usually can swing the results of a single recreation, they’re poor indicators of future outcomes. Probably the most worthwhile recreation information I seize as an enter for my FEI rankings are the outcomes of offensive possessions — how properly did a crew transfer the ball and maximize its possession alternatives, and on protection, how properly did it forestall its opponent from doing the identical.

North Carolina completed two factors forward of Appalachian State on the scoreboard, however the Tar Heels “misplaced” the offensive and defensive effectivity recreation in opposition to the Mountaineers by a closing margin of 8.54 factors. Florida State edged out LSU by one level on the scoreboard, however misplaced its drive effectivity recreation in opposition to LSU by 7.34 factors. A win is completely a win when it comes to crew data, however neither North Carolina nor Florida State bolstered their FEI rankings by a big margin. They did each enhance a bit, not due to their uncooked effectivity metrics however due to their opponent-adjusted metrics. Each “misplaced” (when it comes to drive effectivity) to stronger opponents, and with these changes they nonetheless come out barely forward of the place they began. Each the Tar Heels and Seminoles every moved up 4 FEI rating positions from final week to this week.

The largest positive factors for every had been when it comes to season win-total outcomes. Since neither crew was projected by FEI to win this previous weekend, they every picked up an surprising victory within the ledger. Florida State entered the season with a 63% likelihood of profitable at the least six video games, and at the moment are 86% prone to obtain or exceed that mark. North Carolina was 70% prone to end the common season bowl-eligible, and they’re now 89% probably to take action. Even when the way wherein they gained in Week 1 is not notably replicable, these wins are already within the books and the forecast for the remainder of the yr is a bit sunnier because of this.

2022 FEI Scores (by means of Week 1)

NCAA Week 1 – Fremeau Effectivity Index rankings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession effectivity information representing the per-possession scoring benefit a crew could be anticipated to have on a impartial discipline in opposition to a mean opponent. Offense rankings (OFEI) and protection rankings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive effectivity information representing the per-drive scoring benefit a crew unit could be anticipated to have in opposition to a mean opponent unit. Internet drive effectivity (NDE) is the sum of offensive drive effectivity and defensive drive effectivity information representing scoring worth earned by offense and protection items per drive. Power of schedule rankings signify the anticipated variety of losses an elite crew two commonplace deviations higher than common would have in opposition to every crew’s schedule up to now (ELS), the anticipated variety of losses a great crew one commonplace deviation above common would have in opposition to the schedule up to now (GLS), and the anticipated variety of losses a mean crew would have in opposition to the schedule up to now (ALS). Scores for all 131 groups are found here, and expanded rankings together with projected win totals are found here.

Rk Crew Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk
1 Georgia 1-0 1-0 1.42 1.58 2 1.37 1 6.74 1 .02 39 .22 36 .64 37
2 Alabama 1-0 1-0 1.32 1.61 1 1.14 3 5.73 3 .01 69 .04 67 .30 67
3 Ohio State 1-0 1-0 1.12 1.44 3 .63 11 1.64 26 .22 6 .65 6 .94 8
4 Michigan 1-0 1-0 .97 .88 6 .81 6 3.48 13 .01 78 .02 78 .20 77
5 Clemson 1-0 1-0 .77 .22 55 1.16 2 1.53 29 .01 73 .04 71 .29 71
6 Notre Dame 0-1 0-1 .75 .64 23 .75 8 -1.64 74 .50 3 .87 3 .99 5
7 Wisconsin 1-0 0-0 .74 .48 36 1.03 4
8 Oklahoma 1-0 1-0 .72 1.33 4 .02 54 4.21 7 .01 92 .01 92 .04 92
9 Auburn 1-0 0-0 .63 .63 24 .72 9
10 Penn State 1-0 1-0 .60 .45 38 .77 7 .53 39 .07 21 .36 21 .78 23
11 Utah 0-1 0-1 .60 .80 10 .37 27 -1.16 67 .10 15 .43 15 .83 17
12 Iowa State 1-0 0-0 .59 .73 16 .50 16
13 Oklahoma State 1-0 1-0 .59 .74 14 .47 17 .76 36 .01 65 .07 63 .37 63
14 Texas A&M 1-0 0-0 .57 .37 44 .72 10
15 Texas 1-0 1-0 .56 .61 27 .37 25 3.85 9 .01 89 .01 89 .07 88
16 Minnesota 1-0 1-0 .52 .68 18 .43 20 6.11 2 .01 95 .01 95 .01 95
17 Tennessee 1-0 1-0 .52 .89 5 .18 40 5.04 4 .01 87 .01 87 .10 86
18 Baylor 1-0 0-0 .50 .40 41 .61 12
19 Iowa 1-0 0-0 .50 -.10 79 .97 5
20 Kentucky 1-0 1-0 .49 .54 32 .32 30 .98 35 .01 68 .04 66 .30 66
21 Florida 1-0 1-0 .48 .65 22 .44 19 1.16 31 .15 9 .53 10 .89 12
22 Ole Miss 1-0 1-0 .47 .80 12 .35 28 2.95 15 .01 79 .01 79 .19 78
23 Mississippi State 1-0 1-0 .46 .73 15 .53 15 2.61 19 .01 57 .09 55 .41 55
24 LSU 0-1 0-1 .46 .81 9 .33 29 .98 33 .02 32 .23 32 .66 35
25 Kansas State 1-0 0-0 .44 .57 29 .42 21
26 Michigan State 1-0 1-0 .42 .29 51 .53 14 1.86 23 .01 67 .05 65 .33 65
27 Cincinnati 0-1 0-1 .41 .37 45 .55 13 -.39 55 .05 22 .31 22 .74 24
28 Purdue 0-1 0-1 .39 .53 33 .19 38 -.53 60 .15 8 .54 9 .89 11
29 Wake Forest 1-0 0-0 .35 .72 17 -.04 57
30 Air Drive 1-0 0-0 .34 .80 11 -.07 59

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