Predictions for Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans


In case you’re planning to make prop bets or every other wagers on season-long NFL participant manufacturing, listed here are our steered 2022 bets for a few of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ key playmakers. All prop bets are based mostly on FanDuel over/unders, that includes Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans.

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Prime Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop bets for 2022

The next NFL betting suggestions are based mostly on 10 years of NFL analysis analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, sturdiness, shifting personnel, schedule, and different components assist form these assessments.

Tom Brady

By no means wager in opposition to Tom Brady, proper? I’ve by no means been a fan of claiming, “We’ll by no means see his form once more.” However actually, can we think about seeing one other 45-year-old, seven-time Tremendous Bowl champion who hasn’t missed a sport because of damage in 14 years? Moreover, on paper, Brady continues to steer what is likely one of the league’s greatest offenses.

And but, we’re allowed to wager in opposition to Brady, and this summer time there are many headwinds. Rob Gronkowski has retired once more (we’ll see if he returns in December, although). Chris Godwin may not be 100% to begin the season. Does Julio Jones nonetheless have sufficient left within the tank? Was Russell Gage efficient final yr as a result of he was the clear No. 1 WR? And what in regards to the Bucs’ diminished offensive line, in addition to Leonard Fournette’s observe file of regressing and/or getting damage after 200+ contact seasons, courting again to school?

Betting in opposition to Brady this yr means acknowledging he received’t come near matching final season’s league-high 485 completions on a league-high 719 targets. Going in opposition to this all-world legend assumes his worst numbers since becoming a member of Tampa Bay. That leads me to suggest the next regular-season prop bets.

Passing yards: Below 4,500.5
Passing TDs: Below 35.5

Leonard Fournette

It is a powerful name. As beforehand talked about, I consider strongly in a Fournette regression based mostly on his historic efficiency traits, a weakened O-line, and improved backfield competitors. Rachaad White is a authentic risk to overhaul Fournette this season. Sure, he’s.

Final summer time, consultants had been torn on whether or not Fournette or Ronald Jones could be the higher fantasy play on this backfield. Fournette was a late-summer free agent signing in 2020 who did little to earn the crew’s sustained belief as a starter, a lot much less a bell cow.

If White seems to be higher out of the gate, the Bucs received’t “owe” Fournette the lead job. They’ll give it to the RB who may also help them win one other Tremendous Bowl. It’s that straightforward.

The injury-prone and volume-dependent Fournette is a few 50/50 wager for 175+ touches. Consequently, he’s a fade within the following prop bets.

Speeding yards: Below 750.5
Speeding TDs: Below 7.5

Mike Evans

Mike Evans is a superb wager to maintain producing. Let’s get that out of the best way. He’s the healthiest and most gifted receiver on a crew that now not has Gronk. Brady clearly trusts him (and who wouldn’t?). So Evans ought to proceed to rack up yards.

However will he proceed to hit double-digit scores? If we consider in a Brady regression (and as you now know, I do), and if he trusts Jones and Gage sufficient to cap Evans’ in any other case near-elite ceiling, then we will envision his worst landing whole since 2019, and maybe since 2017.

Since Brady joined the crew, 17 of Evans’ 27 TDs (63%) have come contained in the 10-yard line, in comparison with 20 of his first 49 TDs (41%) with out him. In different phrases, Evans’ scores have been extra situational the final two seasons, depending on a prolific quarterback who seems to be his approach typically with the top zone a stone’s throw away.

In reality, Evans was No. 5 in WR targets inside the ten final yr and No. 2 the yr earlier than. I can’t wager on these favorable circumstances persevering with.

Receiving yards: Over 1,000.5
Receiving TDs: Below 10.5

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