In the event you’re planning to make prop bets or some other wagers on season-long NFL participant manufacturing, listed here are our prompt bets for among the Los Angeles Chargers’ prime playmakers. All prop bets are primarily based on FanDuel over/unders, that includes Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams.
High Chargers prop bets for 2022
The next NFL betting suggestions are primarily based on 10 years of NFL analysis analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, sturdiness, shifting personnel, schedule, and different components assist form these assessments.
Justin Herbert
Let’s preserve this easy. A couple of years in the past, Patrick Mahomes was considered virtually universally because the No. 1 QB. Then Lamar Jackson gave him a run for his cash. Then Josh Allen ascended to the consensus prime spot. So would anybody be shocked if Justin Herbert is subsequent? The 24-year-old has thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. And there are good causes to consider we haven’t seen him at his greatest.
Coming into Yr 3, he has an elite pass-catching RB and two top-20-caliber receivers — probably top-12-caliber if Mike Williams proves final yr wasn’t a fluke. Are 5,500 yards and 45 touchdowns doable? Completely. Is he a severe threat of regressing into the 4,500/35 vary? Not as seemingly, thanks partly to an ascending Joshua Palmer, who ought to no less than partially offset any prolonged absence from Allen or Williams if certainly one of them will get damage.
I like betting on guys like Herbert in season-long props as a result of he’s a weekly breakout risk. He had 300+ yards or three TDs 11 instances final yr — and 4 instances, he achieved each. A few large outings would put him on monitor to comfortably surpass expectations. And greater than most QBs, Herbert is able to large outings.
Passing yards: Over 4,600.5
Passing TDs: Over 35.5
Interceptions: Beneath 12.5
Austin Ekeler
The Chargers group has made some noise this offseason about managing Austin Ekeler’s workload. Drafting Isaiah Spiller was a step on this path, and the improved preseason play of Joshua Kelley may make the choice even simpler. Ekeler had a career-high 206 carries final yr (his earlier excessive was solely 132), and he was No. 4 in RB offensive snaps. Snap depend is vital, as my analysis exhibits the likelihood of regression charges primarily based on snap quantity.
Ekeler stays a top-four pass-catching RB, and his position in that space received’t seemingly change. However in props targeted on speeding, be cautious. The 27-year-old is sort of sure to stay beneath 140 makes an attempt on the bottom, and his landing complete ought to dip in a extra crowded backfield.
Speeding yards: Beneath 750.5
Speeding TDs: Beneath 7.5
Keenan Allen
What number of extra “nice” seasons does Keenan Allen have left? Based mostly on regression charges for WRs no less than 30 years previous, not many. However the 2020 arrival of Herbert actually prolonged Allen’s relevance as a result of it’s laborious to ascertain him exceeding even 900 yards if a bottom-10 QB threw to him.
The 2 greatest questions heading into this season are A) can Williams overtake Allen because the No. 1 WR, and B) can the undervalued Palmer cap Allen’s ceiling? If Allen’s prop had been 100 yards and one landing greater, I’d be a bit extra cautious. Because it stands, I really feel comfy betting on this future Corridor of Famer for no less than another season.
Receiving yards: Over 1,000.5
Receiving TDs: Over 6.5
Mike Williams
Sure, in his age-27 season — a contract yr — Williams lastly busted out. A 76-1,146-9 receiving line whereas taking part in with Ekeler and Allen isn’t any joke. It doesn’t matter how good your QB is. On the identical time, Williams stays a weekly increase/bust choice. He can take over a recreation and typically appears a bit invisible.
However throughout a full season, Williams has come by most of the time. Three years in the past, he racked up 1,001 yards on solely 49 catches. The yr earlier than, he hit 10 receiving touchdowns (in addition to one on the bottom). So it’s not as if 2021 got here as a shock. The expertise has at all times been there, however the execution has been a bit sporadic. And but, so long as the targets are there, a 1,000+ yard and eight+ landing season appears very doable.
Receiving yards: Over 950.5
Receiving TDs: Over 7.5
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