The Miami Dolphins enter the 2022 season with new head coach Mike McDaniel main the offense. It’s time for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to assist this staff make a playoff push. Let’s look at the Dolphins’ present file prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC East, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case acknowledged and are right as of Aug. 16 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Miami Dolphins file prediction 2022
Following the discharge of the NFL schedule, Caesars has supplied odds and spreads for 15 of the Dolphins’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based mostly on these numbers, Miami is projected as favorites in seven video games and underdogs in eight. If their season matches these predictions, the Dolphins can have a 7-8 file following Week 16 of the 2022 marketing campaign.
The margin for error is tight on Miami’s quest for the playoffs based mostly on their odds. Six of their contests characteristic an expansion of three factors or fewer on both aspect. With as deep because the AFC is, it’s cheap to imagine solely groups with 10 wins or extra will make the postseason.
Miami is hoping their main modifications this offseason assist elevate what was a 9-8 staff final yr. McDaniel has introduced a extra structured, efficient offense. However Miami additionally added an explosive playmaker in Tyreek Hill, a star left sort out in Terron Armstead, and a bevy of high quality depth items to assist solidify the unit.
There’s no query Miami has a better ceiling in 2022. Tagovailoa’s improvement can be key to their success. If he can keep wholesome and take an anticipated step ahead as a franchise quarterback, the Dolphins have every little thing else in place wanted to make the postseason.
Dolphins odds, picks, and props
Now we all know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Dolphins on a week-by-week foundation. Let’s have a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, convention, and the Tremendous Bowl.
- Dolphins win whole: 9 (over +100, below -120)
- Dolphins to make the playoffs: +140
- AFC West winner: +450
- AFC winner: +2000
- Tremendous Bowl winner: +4000
The Dolphins’ odds clearly illustrate them as a playoff contender however not a favourite. This is sensible contemplating the entire new items on the staff and the powerful AFC East competitors they need to wade by means of. The Buffalo Payments are the Tremendous Bowl favourite, and the New England Patriots are frequently a playoff menace.
Between their very own unpredictable components resembling harm issues and integrating a brand new workers and set of gamers, in addition to the 14th-most troublesome strength of schedule, oddsmakers are fading the Dolphins. The very fact Miami begins the season in opposition to New England, at Baltimore, in opposition to Buffalo, and at Cincinnati doesn’t assist their outlook.
Nevertheless, Miami has a protracted stretch of winnable video games instantly following their Thursday Night time Soccer battle in opposition to the Bengals. It’s not unimaginable Miami might be 8-4 getting into a troublesome December slate. That’s a far cry from the 1-7 begin that doomed them final yr.
Seeing an enchancment within the offense is an apparent should.
The protection, which settled in at sixteenth in scoring final yr, must also enhance as coordinator Josh Boyer returns. This was a younger group that hit their stride because the season progressed. They allowed greater than 24 factors simply as soon as after Week 8, versus six instances previous to that essential turning level of the season.
Dolphins MVP odds and participant props
With expectations extra centered round making the postseason than thriving within the playoffs, we now have restricted Dolphins’ odds for main awards. Nevertheless, we now have some wonderful participant props, due to their immense star energy on all sides of the ball. We’ve highlighted their finest out there strains beneath.
Tua Tagovailoa +5000
- Defensive Participant of the 12 months
Xavien Howard +6000
- Coach of the 12 months
Mike McDaniel +1600
- Tua Tagovailoa regular-season passing yards
Over/Underneath 3,850.5 (-110)
- Tyreek Hill regular-season receiving yards
Over/Underneath 1,025.5 (over -110, below -120)
- Jaylen Waddle regular-season receiving yards
Over/Underneath 925.5 (-115)
- Xavien Howard regular-season interceptions
Over/Underneath 4.5 (over -130, below +100)
The Dolphins’ MVP and Defensive Participant of the 12 months odds shouldn’t be tempting for any bettor. The Coach of the 12 months award is extra attention-grabbing since McDaniel is the No. 2 in odds. His favorable character and talent to affect this woeful offense makes him a good candidate to win in the event you suppose Miami overachieves and makes the playoffs.
Tagovailoa lacks the talent set and out there quantity to win the MVP this season. Howard is a major producer of interceptions at cornerback, but when Trevon Diggs can’t win the Defensive Participant of the 12 months award with 11 picks, Howard received’t both. These are fools’ bets.
It’s actually simpler to make Dolphins’ predictions for participant props than to put cash on a darkhorse for an award.
We will’t anticipate McDaniel to run this offense within the precise means the 49ers ran their unit with him as coordinator. Jimmy Garoppolo is a unique participant than Tagovailoa, and Hill and Waddle win in numerous methods than Deebo Samuel. However we will see sure foundational issues from that assault with a view to predict manufacturing.
Dolphins 2022 picks
I’m completely optimistic in regards to the Dolphins’ odds of creating the playoffs in 2022. McDaniel’s charming character, expertise operating a high-functioning scheme, and the variety of difference-makers on this roster are large components as to why. Miami just isn’t with out issues alongside their offensive line and defensive depth, however we received’t be watching the identical staff that needed to scratch and claw to wins final yr.
The Dolphins are merely extra gifted than half the league now. Even a repeat of 2021 from younger defenders Jevon Holland, Brandon Jones, Christian Wilkins, and Jaelan Phillips will assist carry what might change into a top-10 protection. The offense is a lock to be prime 15 with all of their playmaking and a sound scheme serving to Tagovailoa.
Miami additionally did effectively so as to add a greater backup passer behind Tagovailoa in case he will get harm. Teddy Bridgewater can win a number of video games if he’s requested to play an prolonged time period. I merely have a tough time seeing Miami win lower than 9 video games, and we’re additionally getting a full quantity with optimistic worth.
A scratch wouldn’t be the worst consequence.
With 10 wins, Miami must also lock in two different worth performs of creating the playoffs and securing second within the East. I’m not a fan of New England’s outlook, and the New York Jets can be dangerous as soon as once more.
The probabilities of the AFC North producing a second playoff staff additionally dropped somewhat with Deshaun Watson’s potential season-long suspension. The AFC West would make historical past if all 4 groups made the postseason. I’m betting the convention’s final Wild Card spot comes all the way down to an AFC West staff, Baltimore, Tennessee, and Miami.
Miami gives a stable different to a few of these acquainted faces which have plateaued in recent times.
1u: Dolphins over 9 wins (+100)
1u: Dolphins make the playoffs (+140)
1u: Dolphins second place AFC East (+165)
We have now to throw out final yr’s offensive numbers for the Dolphins. All we will take away from final yr is that Tagovailoa is a good RPO passer, and he’s correct. The remainder doesn’t matter as a result of the spacing and design of the offense had been compromised by a horrible offensive line.
The primary Dolphins prop guess that stood out was Tagovailoa’s passing yards. He averaged 206 yards per recreation final yr, and this line is aggressively set at 226 yards per recreation. However Garoppolo averaged over 250 yards per recreation. McDaniel will throw the ball typically when his quarterback has manufactured passing lanes and time to eliminate the ball.
Count on Tagovailoa to simply surpass this whole so long as he stays wholesome. Garoppolo nonetheless didn’t eclipse this whole as a result of he missed two-plus video games because of harm. We will’t predict accidents, however the expertise and scheme round Tagovailoa will make this prop look very low if he’s on the sphere all season.
Receiving props for Hill and Waddle are additionally favorable. Experiences out of coaching camp are extraordinarily encouraging on how simply the 2 create separation. It is sensible contemplating their pace and route-running expertise.
McDaniel’s offense created a 1,400-yard receiver in Samuel, a 900-yard tight finish in George Kittle, and an 800-yard receiver in Aiyuk. Mike Gesicki received’t see the quantity Kittle did, and Hill received’t be force-fed like Samuel was. There’s room for 2 1,000-yard receivers on this offense.
The opposite prop price enjoying is Howard’s interception whole. I usually keep away from these, however Howard is the premier ball hawk within the NFL. He’s averaged .4 interceptions per recreation over his final 5 seasons. He’s caught no less than 5 picks in every of his final three full seasons.
The below has optimistic worth, so there’s an incentive to promote Howard persevering with this wonderful stretch. However, the Dolphins’ protection has an incredible group of cross rushers and surrounding items to make his job simpler.
1u: Tagovailoa over 3,850.5 passing yards (-110)
1u: Hill over 1,050.5 receiving yards (-110)
1u: Waddle over 925.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Howard over 4.5 interceptions (-130)