Mariners Seize Luis Castillo From Reds in 5-Participant Deal

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The Enquirer

After a small amuse-bouche within the type of an Andrew Benintendi trade to get our deadline appetites drooling in anticipation, the Mariners have served up a mighty entrée within the type of touchdown Luis Castillo, arguably the most effective pitcher plausibly obtainable this week, in a late Saturday commerce. Heading the quartet of gamers heading to Cincinnati is shortstop Noelvi Marte, the No. 11 prospect each on the midseason replace on The Board and in my preseason ZiPS Top 100 Prospects. Becoming a member of Marte is shortstop Edwin Arroyo, beginning pitcher Levi Stoudt, and reliever Andrew Moore.

Castillo’s season bought off to a rocky begin due to lingering points with a sore shoulder. These are all the time regarding, however he was in a position to debut in early Might after a fortunately eventless rehab stint. After some spotty command in his first sport again, he’s been completely stable, making his second All-Star group this 12 months; in 14 begins for the Reds, he has struck out 90 batters towards 28 walks, placing up an ERA of two.86, a FIP of three.20, and a couple of.1 WAR. That’s sufficient for sixteenth within the NL regardless of Castillo not debuting till Cincinnati’s twenty ninth sport. Whereas it wouldn’t impress Old Hoss Radbourn or Amos Rusie, Castillo is a workhorse by 2022’s requirements, ending the fifth inning in each begin since his first one and boasting a streak of 4 consecutive video games of not less than seven innings, with three of the 4 opponents (Braves, Rays, Yankees) being fairly harmful.

Naturally, touchdown Castillo makes Seattle’s rotation a significantly extra harmful unit. ZiPS offers it a fair greater enhance than our depth charts do, bumping it from 18th within the league in projected rest-of-season WAR to tenth. Total, ZiPS thought the Mariners have been a .527 group going into the season, and now my projections see them as a .545 group with an 84% likelihood of creating the playoffs, up from 76%. This transfer is extra about making the group as harmful within the playoffs as potential; the Mariners may add Juan Soto, too, and the maths of an 11-game deficit would nonetheless make successful the AL West a troublesome street.

As thrilling as it’s to see the Mariners do no matter they’ll to push themselves excessive this season, this transfer could even be an even bigger deal for the 2023 season. Pencil in $15 million for Castillo’s wage, and the M’s have a dedicated luxurious tax variety of simply round $115 million, with solely Adam Frazier and Mitch Haniger as important free brokers. Having a stable rotation already put collectively offers Seattle almost limitless choices this winter.

ZiPS Projection – 2023 Mariners Rotation

Participant W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
Luis Castillo 13 7 3.09 28 28 163.0 133 56 13 59 177 135 4.1
Robbie Ray 12 9 3.44 31 31 183.3 141 70 28 57 230 121 3.9
Logan Gilbert 11 9 3.79 30 30 159.0 145 67 22 45 159 110 2.8
George Kirby 6 6 3.95 25 25 134.3 129 59 25 22 137 105 2.1
Chris Flexen 9 9 4.34 29 27 151.3 157 73 21 44 113 96 1.7
Marco Gonzales 10 11 4.66 27 27 148.7 152 77 26 47 101 89 1.1

Whether or not the 2022 season ends in champagne or unhappiness, I believe this season will go down as one of many most interesting chapters of President of Baseball Ops Jerry Dipoto’s profession. Whereas the Mariners successful 90 video games in 2021 was enjoyable, when it’s time to make the laborious selections, it will have been malpractice to think about this roster a 90-win group somewhat than one loads nearer to the 76 wins that run differential really urged. As a substitute of clinging to the notion that Seattle had 90-win expertise on the roster and easily needed to convey again the identical roster and let the playoff appearances pile in, the entrance workplace approached final winter as if there have been a variety of work to do. Earlier than the lockout, the Mariners acquired Frazier from the Padres after which swooped in to ink the reigning AL Cy Younger winner in Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract. When the offseason (ultimately) resumed, they picked up Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez, additionally from the Reds, in a six-player commerce. And when it was abundantly clear that the minors have been too small to include Julio Rodríguez’s expertise, he was within the Opening Day lineup somewhat than hanging out with the Tacoma Rainiers, ready out any service time video games. Equally, the group approached the choice of find out how to use Kirby from the perspective of “how briskly can he be in Seattle” somewhat than “how lengthy can we justify conserving him within the minors.”

As you might have most likely surmised, I’m a giant fan of each this commerce and the extra common method to Seattle’s team-building this 12 months. So how ’bout them Reds?

By way of the pure worth returned for Castillo, the Reds did very nicely. Prying a prospect ranked wherever close to the highest 10 is a Herculean job, and Marte wasn’t the one prospect going to Cincy. He has a variety of energy for a 20-year-old shortstop, and he’s not only a shortstop in a theoretical sense; he’s very prone to stick on the place over the lengthy haul.

ZiPS Projection – Noelvi Marte

Yr BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2023 .244 .310 .384 562 74 137 19 0 20 85 46 174 11 79 -1 0.9
2024 .250 .317 .412 539 75 135 21 0 22 89 46 165 10 88 -1 1.5
2025 .258 .327 .443 542 80 140 22 0 26 99 49 161 10 98 0 2.3
2026 .262 .332 .464 543 83 142 23 0 29 104 51 163 10 104 0 2.8
2027 .259 .333 .457 540 83 140 23 0 28 103 53 166 9 103 0 2.7
2028 .258 .336 .457 532 83 137 22 0 28 102 56 166 9 103 0 2.8

ZiPS isn’t certain about the remainder of Marte’s offensive sport apart from stable velocity — he nonetheless has a variety of growth forward of him — however a participant together with his energy potential and not less than competence with the glove within the center infield is a participant you ought not guess an excessive amount of towards.

ZiPS Projection – Levi Stoudt

Yr W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2023 10 11 0 5.36 29 29 136.0 144 81 28 52 115 88 0.8
2024 9 9 0 5.29 26 27 122.7 127 72 24 46 105 89 0.8
2025 9 9 0 5.19 26 27 122.7 126 71 24 45 107 91 0.9
2026 8 8 0 5.25 24 24 111.7 115 65 22 41 98 90 0.8
2027 8 8 0 5.22 23 23 108.3 110 63 22 40 96 90 0.8
2028 7 8 0 5.25 22 22 102.3 103 60 21 37 92 90 0.7

My colleague Eric Longenhagen has written previously that Stoudt “could start his huge league profession as a short-outing starter and shift to the bullpen as his choices dwindle.” The projections don’t inform a really completely different story than that. Stoudt hasn’t been notably dominating within the minors, and ZiPS sees his common end result being a back-of-a-rotation starter. As a reliever, his ERA+ projections enhance into the low 100s, giving him stable odds of being a roughly common lengthy man behind a bullpen.

Arroyo is one other shortstop with energy, although not in Marte’s league, and it’s nonetheless unsure whether or not he sticks at brief. The Andrew Moore on this commerce just isn’t the previous Mariners starter, now within the Blue Jays’ group, however a hard-throwing JUCO mission drafted in 2021. He’s made a variety of progress this season; a stroll price of 4.7 per 9, hardly a celebratory quantity for many pitchers, is virtually a revelation after he walked 18 batters in 19 1/3 innings final 12 months. Even in faculty, he walked seven batters a sport. The Reds love these kinds of initiatives, so it’s not stunning to see a prospect like him in a commerce.

(Eric can have a full prospect piece later with extra in-depth ideas on the quartet heading Cincinnati’s method.)

My grievance in regards to the Reds isn’t this commerce, which is definitely nice, however the circumstances that led to this commerce changing into a crucial evil. The 2021 Reds have been a flawed group, however there was a variety of expertise there to construct on; I’d argue that they really went into the offseason with a stronger roster for the 2022 season than the Mariners did. However whereas Seattle rose to the problem to spend money on the group and get into severe playoff competition, Cincinnati’s proprietor as an alternative slammed the competition window shut so shortly that they’re nonetheless discovering shards of glass on I-71. The analyst in me appreciates that each side did nicely on technical benefit, however Cincy’s cynical, soulless 12 months forces me to knock severe factors off their rating.


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