Luis Castillo and His Fastball Warmth Up because the Commerce Deadline Approaches

With the All-Star break within the rear-view mirror, the eyes of the baseball world flip to the upcoming commerce deadline, which is now lower than two weeks away. Juan Soto’s sudden availability is dominating the headlines, pushing the remainder of the sphere to the again burner with the concentrate on the attainable blockbuster deal. Nonetheless, for almost all of groups who’re priced out of the Soto sweepstakes, there’s no shortage of fascinating commerce candidates to go after over the following few weeks.

For groups in search of pitching assist, the highest possibility in the marketplace is sort of actually Luis Castillo. A pair of shoulder accidents to the 2 different prime targets has thrown a wrench into the market; Frankie Montas threw three innings yesterday in his first begin since July 3, and Tyler Mahle is scheduled to make his first begin off the IL on Sunday. It’s actually attainable both Montas or Mahle (or each) will likely be dealt within the subsequent few weeks, however groups will understandably be extra cautious with them.

Castillo dealt together with his personal shoulder damage this spring which held him again from making his season debut till Might. He wasn’t all that sharp by way of his first 4 begins, however he’s turned it on since then, averaging greater than six innings per begin since and permitting simply three whole runs throughout his final 4 turns. Throughout this latest scorching streak, he’s struck out 33 batters (a 30.8% strikeout charge) in 27 innings. In his closing begin earlier than the midseason break, Castillo held the Yankees to a single run in seven innings, permitting two hits and 4 walks and hanging out eight.

Well-known for his incredible changeup, that pitch hasn’t been almost as efficient because it has been prior to now. Over the primary 5 seasons of his profession, he ran a 41.2% whiff charge with the pitch, the fifth-highest whiff mark for a changeup throughout that interval. This 12 months, that has fallen to simply 25.1%, a profession low and the third 12 months in a row it’s dropped. It’s nonetheless an efficient pitch at limiting laborious contact (.305 xwOBAcon), however batters merely aren’t swinging and lacking at it as a lot as they used to.

To fight the gradual decline of his changeup, Castillo has turned to his four-seam fastball, throwing his heater extra usually than his cambio for the primary time since 2018:

It’s nonetheless a little bit of a shock to see him flip away from his changeup regardless of its lackluster outcomes this 12 months. That pitch has been such a dominant weapon for him, and he’s relied on it as his main out pitch for the final three seasons. The largest purpose why he’s turned away from it, although, isn’t due to its lack of effectiveness; it’s as a result of his four-seamer has been higher than ever earlier than.

Previous to this 12 months, Castillo ran a 26.2% whiff charge on his fastball — a bit above common for that pitch sort, however not excellent. This season, the whiff charge on the pitch is approaching 40%; amongst all four-seam fastballs thrown no less than 100 occasions in 2022, that’s the perfect in baseball.

The important thing to the massive heater enchancment stems from the quantity of trip he’s in a position to generate with the pitch, as he’s added greater than an inch of carry whereas sustaining the identical laborious velocity he’s at all times had all through his profession. The spin charge on his fastball additionally spiked by almost 150 rpms final season, and it’s even greater this 12 months. And whereas he wasn’t in a position to translate that further spin to extra motion in 2021, it’s lastly taken maintain in ’22. That extra trip he’s been in a position to generate with the pitch has unlocked the advantages of one other adjustment he additionally made final 12 months, when he dropped his vertical launch level by virtually 1 / 4 of an inch; he’s maintained that very same decrease launch this season.

Once we speak about trip and launch factors together, we’re actually speaking about flat fastballs. 4-seamers with flat vertical strategy angles (VAA) are extraordinarily efficient, significantly up within the zone. VAA is a perform of a pitch’s velocity, launch peak, and placement; these three interrelated elements assist us perceive why an excessive VAA would assist a pitch outperform its uncooked bodily traits. For Castillo, the changes he’s made to the form of his fastball and his launch level have turned his fastball right into a monster:

Castillo has constantly elevated his VAA from above-average to elite during the last two years. He had already been finding his fastball up within the zone repeatedly, however reducing his launch level final 12 months helped him make the primary soar, and the additional keep on the pitch bought him all the best way there.

The advantages might be instantly seen within the phenomenal whiff charge the pitch is producing, however they prolong past that one metric:

Castillo is operating the very best zone charge of his profession, and opposing batters are swinging at his fastball greater than ever earlier than in consequence. They merely can’t make stable contact with the pitch, despite the fact that he’s filling the zone with it. All these heaters situated contained in the zone mixed with all the extra whiffs has led to the 14th-highest CSW (referred to as plus swinging-strike charge) amongst all four-seamers thrown no less than 100 occasions.

If there’s one drawback together with his fastball, it’s what occurs when batters do make contact with the pitch. So far, he’s allowed a .317 wOBA on contact off his heater, however the anticipated wOBA on contact is way greater at .446, with a 47.4% laborious hit charge and a 13.2% barrel charge. A flat fastball will likely be efficient within the zone regardless of the place it’s thrown, however it’s handiest up within the zone the place it can “soar” over a batter’s swing. As you possibly can see within the desk above, the common vertical location of his fastball has dropped barely this 12 months. If he’s in a position to find it constantly up within the zone once more, I think a few of that tough contact will flip into pop ups and lazy fly balls as a substitute.

If Castillo is dedicated to finding his fastball within the coronary heart of the zone to generate as many whiffs as he can, his secondary choices present him with the contact administration his fastball is presently missing. Each his changeup and his slider have an anticipated wOBA on contact proper round .300, giving him two pitches to make use of if he must generate weak contact. That’s regardless of these two secondary choices operating almost an identical 25% whiff charges, career-lows for each of them. For no matter purpose, his secondary choices have misplaced a ton of effectiveness this 12 months, however he’s made up for it together with his out of the blue elite fastball. Shifting ahead, you’d anticipate his changeup and slider to rebound a bit since there are actually no important bodily adjustments to them. If that occurs, he’ll have three incredible weapons in his arsenal to assist him proceed racking up strikeouts.

As a result of Castillo will likely be beneath workforce management by way of 2023, the price to amass him will likely be extraordinarily excessive. Whichever workforce does find yourself buying and selling for him will likely be getting a wonderful pitcher who has made key changes to unlock a brand new stage of efficiency.