For those who’re planning to make prop bets or another wagers on season-long NFL participant manufacturing, listed below are our recommended 2022 Javonte Williams prop bets primarily based on his possible statistical vary. Williams stays wrapped in one other potential timeshare with veteran RB Melvin Gordon. All prop bets are primarily based on FanDuel over/unders.
Prime Javonte Williams prop bets for 2022
The next NFL betting suggestions are primarily based on 10 years of NFL analysis analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, sturdiness, shifting personnel, schedule, and different components assist form these assessments.
Javonte Williams 2021 recap
Williams arrived in Denver in 2021 as an instantaneous contributor and certain future bell cow. However the 28-year-old Melvin Gordon went toe-to-toe practically all season, and the 2 completed with the identical variety of dashing makes an attempt (203). Whereas Williams earned 15 extra seems to be by means of the air, Gordon ran barely extra effectively on the bottom.
The veteran additionally outscored his 21-year-old teammate 10 touchdowns to seven, although that was partly as a consequence of a slight utilization edge contained in the 5- and 10-yard strains.
And but, Williams demonstrated the abilities that led the Broncos to snag him within the second spherical of final yr’s draft. On the bottom, he led all NFL operating backs in damaged tackles (31) and broken-tackle price (one each 6.5 dashing makes an attempt). Moreover, his 43-316-3 receiving line was uniquely sturdy for a rookie non-starter. One may assume he has nowhere to go however up.
The Broncos have been tied for 14th in dashing makes an attempt final yr. Their QBs have been statistically (and arguably objectively) sub-par NFL starters. So the truth that Williams and Gordon did in addition to they did is outstanding, particularly when contemplating this crew scored the league’s Tenth-fewest factors.
Williams’ 2022 outlook
Youth. Damaged-tackle proficiency. Nice fingers. There’s loads going for Williams heading into 2022. The arrival of Russell Wilson at QB ought to catapult this offense into the highest 14, if not the highest eight. That ought to result in extra sustained drives and extra landing alternatives. It ought to assist Williams elevate his already spectacular 2021 dashing numbers.
And this doesn’t even issue within the chance that Williams takes on a larger share of the backfield workload. Now 29 years previous, Gordon is No. 3 on the lively all-time carries checklist behind Mark Ingram and Ezekiel Elliott. Up to now 10 years, his RB age group (29 and older) has carried out worse in comparison with fantasy common draft place (i.e. market expectations) than another RB age group. Merely put, Williams is an ascending expertise. Gordon is merely making an attempt to stall the advance of time.
Javonte Williams props: dashing yards and dashing TDs
Consequently, I’m all in on a breakout marketing campaign for Williams, who realistically may eclipse 300 touches, particularly if Gordon misses not less than two video games. Even when Williams earns solely 5% extra touches than final yr, that might give him 258, which may push him into the highest 12 in RB touches. A 12% bump, primarily based on final yr’s totals, may propel him to the highest six.
In different phrases, it wouldn’t take a lot for Williams to comfortably outperform his 2021 numbers. But, his prop strains assume extra of the identical. And so I’m bullish about Williams exceeding expectations.
Common-season dashing yards: Over 925.5
Common-season dashing TDs: Over 6.5