In a stunning story heading into the weekend, MLB introduced that Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. can be suspended for 80 video games underneath the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Therapy Program. His optimistic take a look at was for Clostebol, an anabolic steroid that beforehand led to the suspensions of Dee Strange-Gordon and Freddy Galvis. The ban ends his 2022 season earlier than it ever formally began, and he will even miss a good chunk of subsequent 12 months, as effectively.
To say that is unwelcome information can be an understatement. The Padres are in prime playoff place with out having the companies of Tatis this 12 months, however this can be a large hit; they’re on this place regardless of his loss. Whether or not you’re speaking concerning the projections of nerdy laptop techniques or the expectations of crew workers and their followers, the concept he can be again on the roster for a minimum of a lot of the stretch run and the playoffs was baked into the assumptions.
Whereas a sure commerce with the crew in D.C. for a particular outfielder of a lot acclaim rightfully obtained essentially the most thundering plaudits after the deadline, the depth transfer for Brandon Drury in a small commerce with the Reds is trying even higher. After a string of disappointing seasons following his early success in Arizona, he’s having a profession 12 months, hitting .269/.333/.521 for a wRC+ of 130 and taking part in a number of positions. Drury is competent at each second base and third base, which amplifies the worth of his offensive manufacturing, and that flexibility permits the Padres to shuffle gamers across the diamond as wants, matchups, or accidents demand. He’s even performed sufficient shortstop that he might be a minimum of thought-about an emergency choice, nevertheless it’s much less wanted in San Diego with Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth probably forward of him within the depth chart on the place.
The Padres’ depth mitigates the lack of Tatis, however their younger celebrity is so good that virtually any timeshare of mortals will characterize a major downgrade on the place. Coming into 2022, ZiPS ranked him second in baseball in projected WAR, behind solely Juan Soto, and solely as a result of it projected fewer video games performed for Tatis due to his damage historical past. ZiPS was not precisely going out on a limb right here; Steamer and THE BAT held him in related regard, as did, effectively, each one who was even vaguely acquainted with baseball. Even my mother, who has nearly zero curiosity within the sport, knew concerning the suspension, although admittedly she referred to him as “Taters.”
In any case, let’s run the median projections for the NL West, each with out a Tatis suspension and with him returning on the finish of this week:
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL West (Pre-Tatis Suspension)
| Group | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 106 | 56 | — | .654 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 100.0% | 10.7% |
| San Diego Padres | 91 | 71 | 15 | .562 | 0.1% | 85.5% | 85.6% | 6.3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 82 | 80 | 24 | .506 | 0.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 0.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 90 | 34 | .444 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 69 | 93 | 37 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Dodgers have principally closed the door on the longshot probability that San Diego would catch them within the NL West, however the Padres are among the many finest located of the believable wild card groups. Including Soto gave them the strongest roster amongst wild card contenders, a roster as robust as Los Angeles’ till Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw return. ZiPS noticed San Diego, towards league-average competitors, as a .582 crew with the idea that Tatis can be again. Now let’s go to the present projection with out Tatis, which reduces the roster power by 26 factors of profitable share, to .556.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL West (After 8/15 Video games)
| Group | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 106 | 56 | — | .654 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 10.7% |
| San Diego Padres | 90 | 72 | 16 | .556 | 0.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 5.3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 82 | 80 | 24 | .506 | 0.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 90 | 34 | .444 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 69 | 93 | 37 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The impression on each San Diego’s probabilities of making the playoffs and profitable the World Collection is important. By way of the postseason, just below a tenth of the time, the Padres taking part in postseason baseball turns into the Padres taking part in golf and watching the playoffs on TV. Playoffs being a little bit of a crapshoot, absolutely the impression is comparatively small, however {that a} sixth of their World Collection possibilities simply evaporated needs to be a sore spot for a crew making an attempt to win proper now. In opposition to a .575 crew, going from a .582 crew to a .556 crew reduces the probabilities of victory by about 4 to 6 share factors each collection, relying on size.
Naturally, Tatis’ teammates and group have expressed their frustration with him publicly; it might be unreasonable for them to really feel in a different way. No person can discover fault when a participant is injured, however when he’s out from actions of his personal doing, it feels a bit like a betrayal. If I have been suspended from my BBWAA membership for a 12 months for conduct violations, whereas it might clearly have an effect on my private profession, it might be an actual slap within the face of my colleagues at FanGraphs and the numerous writers who’ve unfold my work round through the years.
Joe Musgrove on Tatis:
“Just a little bummed, a bit of pissed,” mentioned Joe Musgrove, the lifelong Padres fan and now a pitcher and a pacesetter on the crew. “It’s arduous to make a judgement or say something till I hear from Tati or what these particulars are. However yeah, not day.”
[…]“You possibly can say he’s a younger child and he’s gonna study his classes or whatnot,” Musgrove mentioned. “However in the end, I believe you’ve obtained to begin exhibiting a bit of little bit of that regret and exhibiting us that you just’re dedicated to it and that you just need to be right here.”
“The second time we’ve been dissatisfied with him,” pitcher Mike Clevinger mentioned final night time. “You hope he grows up and learns from this and learns it’s about extra than simply him.”
President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller:
“It’s very disappointing,” Preller mentioned. “He’s any person that from the group’s standpoint we’ve invested money and time into. When he’s on the sector, he’s a distinction maker. It’s a must to study from the conditions. We have been hoping that from the offseason to now that there can be some maturity, and clearly with the information immediately, it’s extra of a sample and it’s one thing that we’ve obtained to dig a bit extra into. … I’m positive he’s very dissatisfied. However on the finish of the day, it’s one factor to say it. You’ve obtained to begin exhibiting by your actions.”
The reason given by Tatis was unconvincing.
The Main League Baseball Gamers Affiliation issued the next assertion on behalf of Fernando Tatis, Jr.: pic.twitter.com/gCNVcs0a5Y
— MLBPA Communications (@MLBPA_News) August 12, 2022
Athletes blaming their optimistic checks on others is outdated hat, however the claims of a tainted ringworm therapy, whereas not unimaginable, sound like a stretch. Dr. Rany Jazayerli, a reputation most of you must be acquainted with, is at that uncommon intersection of baseball analyst, long-suffering Royals fan, and dealing dermatologist, and he was extremely skeptical about Tatis’ claims. On Twitter, he reiterated that he wouldn’t take into account prescribing something with Clostebol — versus the equally named Clobetasol — to a affected person with ringworm.
I solely communicate from my expertise as a US-trained, board-certified dermatologist for 19 years. Possibly Clostebol is used to deal with ringworm elsewhere, despite the fact that it makes no medical sense.
Or perhaps Tatis googled Clostebol and was fed a bunch of outcomes for Clobetasol as a substitute. ????
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) August 13, 2022
Tatis accepted the suspension with out interesting, however that’s hardly a terrific sacrifice on condition that drug suspensions in baseball are largely strict legal responsibility. With out having the ability to problem the proof of the violation itself, he should show by clear and convincing proof that he bore no important fault or negligence for the optimistic take a look at. That’s a tricky burden and largely serves merely to mitigate the penalty to a minimal of 30 video games for a first-time offender whereas nonetheless leaving him ineligible for the playoffs. Fortunately for the Padres, the postseason ban solely applies to the season throughout which a suspension commences, not all seasons in which there’s a suspension, which leaves Tatis eligible to play within the 2023 postseason together with a lot of the common season.
There’s no actual silver lining, but when Tatis had been suspended only a few weeks later, there would have been a further drawback for the Padres. Since his suspension runs for fewer than 40 video games in 2023, he is allowed to play in all spring coaching video games, not simply the intrasquad video games for which no tickets are offered. On condition that Tatis had already missed most of a season with a fractured wrist, the franchise must be pleased to get him into as many precise baseball video games as they’ll earlier than he returns someday subsequent 12 months. If San Diego performs within the most of twenty-two postseason video games, he may very well be again as quickly as mid-April!
From a projection standpoint, little modifications about Tatis aside from the extra regular hit taken from lacking time from a non-injury. ZiPS doesn’t take a look at drug suspensions in a different way as a result of, after spending a decade researching this concern from each angle I can consider, realizing whether or not or not a participant has been banned for PED use has had no predictive worth within the context of efficiency from MLB-level gamers. That is largely why I take into account PED use a security concern — gamers shouldn’t really feel compelled to make use of, whether or not or not they’re efficient — and a public relations one.
That latter area is the place Tatis would possibly take the largest hit of all. The reputational harm shall be immense, irrespective of the efficacy of his PED use. We’re in uncharted territory right here, through which a younger, elite participant is caught utilizing. Whereas Alex Rodriguez has admitted utilizing, and there’s a minimum of a query about David Ortiz as a younger participant in 2003, these weren’t identified on the time. Tatis may come again, put up a Corridor of Fame-type run for a decade and cross each drug take a look at with flying colours, and there shall be inevitably some individuals who nonetheless consider him as a cheater. Robinson Canó didn’t must play baseball for 15 years after a drug suspension, and gamers like Frankie Montas and Nelson Cruz simply aren’t in the identical tier as Tatis; followers appear to be way more forgiving of reasonable skills than transcendent ones.
There may even be Cooperstown penalties. Solely talking for myself, I take into account a drug suspension, even when I don’t consider it considerably modified efficiency, to be a critical offense. To me, as with corked bats, it’s the try to cheat, not the efficacy. I do assume there’s a grey space, as when Mark McGwire allegedly was utilizing. Some will cite Fay Vincent’s 1991 memo banning steroid use as proof of a baseball rule, however even Vincent himself didn’t believe his memo applied to players.
“I despatched it out as a result of I believed it was vital to take the place that steroids have been harmful, as have been different unlawful medicine,” Vincent mentioned. “As , the union wouldn’t discount with us, wouldn’t focus on, wouldn’t comply with any type of a coherent drug plan. So my memo actually utilized to all of the individuals who weren’t gamers.”
In different phrases, that memo may ban Jim Fregosi or Terry Collins for steroid use. However the drug testing settlement explicitly made it towards the principles with penalties connected, and that wiggle room vanished.
Not like some writers, I don’t take into account a PED suspension an automated disqualifier, however underneath the Corridor of Fame’s voting pointers, I take into account it a violation of the character clause, which I see in baseball phrases, and for a borderline candidate, that would put him out. That mentioned, the Corridor of Fame voting pool will change quite a bit within the 20–25 years earlier than Tatis would come as much as the citizens — I don’t vote till after the 2025 season, and by the purpose I’d be voting on Tatis, I’ll be in my mid-to-late 60s — so it’s arduous to gauge precisely how writers will really feel about drug use with one other quarter century of expertise.
No matter what occurs to Tatis personally, this can be a hit for baseball. He’s one of many league’s most marketable younger skills, and one of many proponents for baseball really being allowed to be enjoyable, not a Very Severe Affair through which we tut-tut about brutish bat flips and proletariat celebrations as we gently sip our beers (pinky out!) and yearn for the return of Regency Baseball requirements. Tatis must be one of many faces of baseball, not one in every of its disgraces. After we lose a participant like that, everyone who loves the sport loses.
