Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/4/22

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12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hi there folks!
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And perhaps some bots.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or cats or alien lifeforms.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However in all probability folks.
12:04
Wiz: Is there a group arrange higher than the Os over the subsequent decade? I imply, WOW
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, O’s gained’t have Dodgers cash however the ought to have a pleasant remainder of 2020s!
12:05
Wiz: Will we see Gunnar Henderson this 12 months? Odor for Henderson looks as if one of many clearest methods so as to add like a win and a half the remainder of the way in which.
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe no since he’s not on the 40-man
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if the O’s essentially wish to add him proper now.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (to not point out the standard service time video games)
12:06
Huge Al: Mike Elias acknowledged that this off season the Orioles will likely be rather more keen to spend on FA’s, do you might have any concept who may match? I assume some arms.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can see the O’s taking a look at arms
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Although the market isn’t *nice*
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Musgrove much better than the remainder of the possible FAs
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (You’ll be able to see that in Musgrove ZiPS piece)
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However I can see them selecting up some inning-eaters
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Observe that I’m anticipated DeGrom to truly take the choice given his harm
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: deGrom
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However I may see midrange pitcher choices like Eovaldi or Taillon
12:09
Tacoby Bellsbury: Should you had been a GM who obtained to decide on which rebuild you’re inheriting between the Nats, Reds or A’s, which might you choose and why? (Baseball causes solely — the “chili” vs. proximity to your own home ought to make Cincinnati a wash.)
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dangit, can’t use driving distance?
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Then in all probability DC, as a result of there I can *envision* the group spending cash once more
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, they *did* provide Soto greater than $400 million
12:09
Bob: Why do you assume Willson Contreras remains to be a Cub?
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe they attempt to lengthen him
12:09
HornsUp: I can defend the Cubs not buying and selling Contreras or Happ if they didn’t just like the presents, however shouldn’t they’ve been completely happy to get a Circuit Metropolis reward card for Smyly?
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Perhaps they didn’t get a present card!
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Happ I can perceive since Happ isn’t a FA
12:10
Jason N: That Brandon Drury pickup was HUGE
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far, however he’s helpful
12:10
Oakland Ass: Hey White Sox did one thing on the deadline — not firing Sleepy Eyes LaRussa
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, Reinsdorf didn’t promote
12:10
Anon21: Converse consolation to me, Dan. Why has Ronald Acuña’s 5-year projection collapsed between final 12 months’s commerce worth checklist and this 12 months’s? Is it principally enjoying time (which is inherently extra unsure)?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Harm not totally baked in till return and his play is WAY down total
12:11
Oakland Ass: Can Angels do something in subsequent 2-3 years to develop into good?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nothing sensible, no
12:11
asnbrv: How does ZiPS have any concept how good a fielder is that hasnt had any mlb enjoying time?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve a complete zone-esque minor league system
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve the situation knowledge for each ball hit in each minor league recreation going again to 2008
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and a probabilistic measure for each ball hit
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was in search of a graphic
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For instance, listed here are grounder charges by vector
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:17
Perry Minasian: Do I commerce Ohtani this offseason? And if that’s the case, what % of the Soto return ought to I anticipate to get?
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, becuase you’d in all probability solely get half.
12:17
Biscuit: Assume Barrero can ultimately impression a significant league roster? That Ok fee seems fairly scary.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m more and more pessimistic. His plate self-discipline numbers have collapsed within the minors this 12 months, together with every part else
12:18
Dansby SwanSong: I nonetheless don’t perceive why the Yankees traded Montgomery for an incredible defensive CFer who’s on the IL with plantar fasciitis.  Please provide your take.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He must be again. Playing cards are being cautious.
12:18
Oakland Ass: Which fan base ought to have much less hope: Rockies or Royals?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rockies
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Royals have a craptacular plan that wants every part to go proper, however typically they land on free parking
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And once they’re good, they’ve the understanding to reinforce that
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: when the royals had their second, they DID make trades so as to add expertise
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Rockies simply shuffle alongside randomly.
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gimme a crappy plan mixed with boldness than no plan mixed with indolence
12:20
KIDZERO: Very long time Rockies fan who is completely disillusioned by Rockies entrance workplace.  Iglesias, Colome, Kuhl, Estevez all quickly to be free brokers, however not moved for any future gamers…put me out of my distress!
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not allowed to homicide folks, I feel.
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However right here’s my assortment of Hearthstone-Rockies pictures.
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For individuals who don’t get the final reference, the Rockies held a pizza occasion on the commerce deadline as an alternative of doing something
12:24
James: Persons are sleeping on Profar this season, dude’s rockin a 126 wRC+ and projected to complete with ~3.7 fWAR. He’s in all probability opting out this winter, proper?
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s possible
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He can in all probability beat 1/7.5 with a ten mutual possibility, which is what he has if he doesn’t decide out
12:24
Oakland Ass: Let’s play make imagine — Hosmer opts out. How a lot does he get as a free agent?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would provide him one-year, $2.3 million.
12:26
Oakland Ass: I get the A’s transferring however is Las Vegas actually marketplace for baseball or simply a straightforward mark to get stadium funding?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Latter
12:26
M’s Fan: Who may/ought to the M’s goal within the offseason so as to add a bat?  The farm is fairly gutted to make a commerce now.
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This isnt one of many extra thrilling FA years
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Abreu as DH can be enjoyable
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Should you can settle who performs the place with none disasters, Swanson or, assuming opt-out occurs, Bogaerts
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I’d attempt to transfer JP to 2B for Swanson, not for Bogaerts, so who is aware of who would get pissed)
12:29
Didace: What group has a greater file in 2025 – Padres or Nationals? (Please say Nationals, I would like to be ok with this case.)
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nationals BUT YOU MADE ME
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s actually arduous to inform with a lot uncertainty
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Padres may go doomsday clock for finish of 2024
12:30
Rob: Rutschman is already prime 10 in catcher WAR in half the video games however would love greater than 5 homers in 50+ video games!
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DONT BE GREEDY
12:30
JasonM: Out of your Article on Aug 2nd “Padres Push In All Their Chips, Agree to Deal for Juan Soto and Josh Bell” you acknowledged that “(12 months-by-year projections for Wooden and Susana are sadly past ZiPS’ scope at this stage of their careers.)”  What’s the tipping level the place ZiPS is ready to do year-by-year projections on gamers? Wooden has solely has a pair hundred PAs at low-A up to now, is it a matter of simply having a bigger pattern at low-A (or beneath) or would he must have performed at A+? or AA?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s principally the place I’m comfy
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t like projecting hitters till a full season of excessive A and pitchers till they’ve not less than SOME AA time
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not less than, not sufficient to do 12 months by 12 months readouts
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as a result of the volatility is MASSIVE for these guys
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Simply comfy sufficient with the imply WAR totals for the prospect rankings
12:31
John: How vast do you imagine the hole is between the highest and backside groups in terms of growing and making use of analytical instruments and fashions?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually smaller than 20 years in the past
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A foul entrance workplace now — let’s say the Royals — can be within the prime tier in 1995
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rockies are poorly run regardless of the period
12:32
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Did the Dodgers make a mistake in not including one other excessive leverage reliever?
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s a risk
12:34
Fanny: Hi there Dan, it looks as if some gamers had been simply in the proper place on the proper time, comparable to Jose Altuve and the way he ended up getting signed by the Astros. Who do you assume one of the best participant(s) is who by no means had the chance? Not somebody like Grady Sizemore for instance, who was derailed by accidents; and never somebody who was a hyped prospect however then simply by no means produced, like Mark Appel (although he presently he has 1.74 ERA with the Phillies?!?). However somebody who appeared like they may have been actually good however simply by no means obtained the possibility to both get referred to as up or get a full-time job. Anybody come to thoughts?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All time? That’s arduous, it is dependent upon what you contemplate an excessive amount of of a chance.
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Roberto Petagine by no means actually obtained constant playign time
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Greg LaRocca had a a lot smaller window
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Scott McClain needs to be on that checklist
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Karl Pagel
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Brian Dopirak
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: sorry, simply pondering of names right here
12:39
Cat Latos: What do my cat associates do?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Final I noticed them, Constantine was sitting on the kitchen counter as a result of he was getting hungry, Cassiopeia was on a blanket in a visitor bed room, and Mercutio was bullying Justinian over the fishing pole that may be a lengthy fluffy yellow measuring tape with a bell on the finish
12:40
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: The Rays can be in hassle for doing little on the deadline if not for the Pink Sox, White Sox, and Guardians doing (web) nothing to assist themselves proper?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it wasn’t essentially the most thrilling deadline for the Rays
12:41
Romorr: Contemplating the return the Reds obtained fir Mahle, would you might have favored to have seen Mike Elias beat that? Underneath management for subsequent 12 months as effectively made him enticing in my eyes.
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meh
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d reasonably the O’s hand over cash in FA than prospects
12:41
Large Gonzales: How do you view Bloom as a GM up to now? I assumed this may be extra of a retool whereas rebuilding the farm system, however the returns on the Betts commerce are beneath cromulent, the Renfroe swap is a meh, and the “large” cash Story signing isn’t trying too scorching. Is that this a case the place it’s 5 years in earlier than he’s completed shedding all of the earlier contracts/gamers? If Devers doesn’t get prolonged, it’s a tricky tablet to swallow watching the quantity of younger expertise that’s left over the previous couple years.
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s arduous to say up to now; I feel he’s additionally underneath a variety of possession constraints
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: name it an incompelte
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For instance, I’ve religion foundation to imagine that possession insisted on a participant who may contribute now for Betts
12:42
Romorr: With simply 93 video games above A+ for Gunnar, are you comfy with the service time assetments? For me, I can type of see either side to this.
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Right here’s what it comes all the way down to for me
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

  1. What’s he going to do towards AAA pitchers that he isn’t already to be extra prepared?
  2. Is he higher than who he would substitute?
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If the reply is shrug and sure, then it’s service time
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a 21-year-old who can play shortstop and a .939 OPS at AAA. What precise talent will he develop AAA now exterior of merely beating the pitchers up much more?
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s the query one has to reply
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not essentially saying YOU must reply it
12:46
Dan: What’s your opinion on the Ruf commerce? Have seen reactions starting from what are the Mets doing to this commerce isn’t nice for both group
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s high-quality
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mets wish to win now and now they’ve a platoon of huge grownup son and enormous grownup uncle
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Davis hits higher, he can simply be a beginning DH subsequent 12 months for Giants perhaps
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and whereas three prospects went to Giants, it’s not like these had been PROSPECTS
12:47
City Shocker’s Jockstrap: Vital simulation request: Are you able to run a WWE tag group of Juan Soto and Scott Boras vs. the Lerner household?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I may. I have already got Juan Soto helpful!
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Must make him a brand new uni in fact
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gratuitous
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:49
Joelskil: Why are sunsets prettier than sunrises?
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since you’re in all probability not going to work after the previous
12:49
Paul: Ideas on the Brewers’ DFAing Lamet?
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m stunned that they did it so shortly
12:50
Nolan: deGrom says he wont take the choice tho, and if continues to appear like deGrom I don’t see how he’s not gonna get a greater deal
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, I missed that he mentioned that!
12:50
JC: Clint Frazier’s web page is lacking.
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He began going by his center title, Jackson, just a few months in the past
12:52
Dealing with Your Outdated Staff: I’ve at all times been inquisitive about instances of gamers dealing with their outdated group for the primary time.  For instance, Jordan Montgomery’s first STL begin is towards NYY this weekend.  In instances like that, does both group acquire an inherent benefit over the opposite?  Does Montgomery have really feel for what his former teammates can’t hit so he can inform his new rotation-mates?  Do Yankee catchers inform different Yankee hitters what Montgomery likes to throw in sure conditions?
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Truthfully, I’ve by no means really researched that individual situation
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It could be enjoyable to take a look at although
12:52
Unhappy Nats Fan: Why do the Braves regularly signal their gamers to relative bargains?! IT’S NOT FAIR! I’m not crying you’re!
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No less than this was a good deal!
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That Albies deal…
12:53
Visitor: Christian Encarnacion-Strand not a lot of a prospect per the scouting report, however he has completed nothing however hit. Is a scouting replace on the way in which?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was a midseason one!
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’ll definitely get a ZiPS this 12 months
12:53
Visitor: when Zips runs extension analyses, does it use a sliding scale of {dollars} per warfare or is it a 1:1 ratio? For instance, a participant with a excessive likelihood of offering lower than one WAR would have worth nearer to substitute stage for these seasons however a a lot larger $ per WAR for seasons of three+ projected WAR?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The factor is that after the primary win, $/win is *nonetheless* sorta working
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the factor is, it ALWAYS ought to have been non-linear
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but it surely’s at all times acted linear, roughly
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that appears to be altering, most for mediocre gamers
12:54
TKDC: The Nats would have been ecstatic if Soto would have agreed to that underneath market deal, however don’t you assume it was designed to shift blame? “Hey, we tried?” $440 million appears extra acceptable for 10 years, not 15. If Soto turned *that* down, then they may legitimately say they tried.
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They in all probability ought to have simply supplied 10 as a result of years 11-15 for ANYONE is basically low worth due to uncertainty
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided you provide half-a-billion bucks for PR
12:55
Cito: The place can followers discover public defensive metrics for Minor Leaguers past the easy assists, errors, performs, and many others? I do know of Clay Davenport’s website, however any others?
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s really type of arduous
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there isn’t a lot on the market
12:55
Juan Soto: How lengthy had been organizations utilizing deeper analytics earlier than basic baseball fandom realized how essential that they had develop into?
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not that lengthy actually
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: you return to the 80s, whiel there have been at all times a pair numbers guys hanging round
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: like Eddie Epstein
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however the analytics *had been* rudimentary
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and actually, the 90s sabermetric group was forward of groups
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: on the time
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moneyball actually *did* assist to extra shortly modernize entrance workplaces than they might have in any other case
12:57
Visitor: does Rodon decide out this off season, if that’s the case, are Cardinals, Rangers…anybody else prime locations?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel he does, however I kinda anticipate the Giants to drop an enormous extension provide earlier than finish of season
12:58
Unhappy Nats Fan: To be truthful–half the Soto return remains to be vital. That’s how large it was.
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However I feel the Angels have the concept Ohtani is AS worthwhile
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s not. You get half the time
12:58
Visitor: Does MJ Melendez provide extra worth as an OF or catcher?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: c
1:00
Service Time Impingement Syndrome: Do you might have a tackle what’s occurring with Luis Robert and why the White Sox feedback on the scenario are so convoluted? Is it simply HIPAA compliance? Or one thing extra?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The issue is that MLB’s CBA, finally verify, solely permits group’s to reveal *employment-related* accidents
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so there’s this bizarre kabuki the place they’ll’t actually SAY {that a} participant is out with COVID or one thing except the participant’s cool with it
1:01
Cito: Ronny Mauricio ranked #17 in your pre-season ZiPS 100. How a lot do you anticipate him to fall with the poor stroll fee and call points this season?
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a bunch
1:01
Will: What are your Qualifying Supply predictions?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not leaking an article I haven’t even considered but! lol
1:02
Colton: Do you assume the Cardinals did proper by not together with Carlson in a commerce to get Soto or do you imagine they made a mistake in doing so?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel the place the Cardinals had been unwilling was Carlson AND an enormous bundle
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The factor is, the Cardinals usually are not gamblers.
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re the regular, cautious sorts.
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Cardinals calmly and coolly calculate their pot odds
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whereas the Padres see JTs and a pair folks limping in and aggressively elevate
1:04
Dick Monfort Windmill Excessive-5: Am I so unsuitable for desperately wanting a Cardinals/Jays WS only for the takes?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, chaos is at all times an possibility
1:04
HornsUp: Extra prone to fall off a cliff after 2024: Padres or Brewers?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Padres actually
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Merely primarily based on what they’ve now, not future selections
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 4 of their 5 starters are FA this 12 months or subsequent
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and some of the possible replacements for one, Gore, is a Nat
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, I’ve a busy afternoon, so I’ve to maintain this to an hour right now.
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Keep in mind, you may at all times hit me up with stuff on Twitter!
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t chew except you’re Murray Chass


 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on numerous radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.


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