12:02 |
: Hi there folks!
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12:02 |
: And perhaps some bots.
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12:03 |
: Or cats or alien lifeforms.
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12:03 |
: However in all probability folks.
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12:04 |
: Is there a group arrange higher than the Os over the subsequent decade? I imply, WOW
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12:05 |
: I imply, O’s gained’t have Dodgers cash however the ought to have a pleasant remainder of 2020s!
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12:05 |
: Will we see Gunnar Henderson this 12 months? Odor for Henderson looks as if one of many clearest methods so as to add like a win and a half the remainder of the way in which.
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12:05 |
: I believe no since he’s not on the 40-man
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12:05 |
: I don’t know if the O’s essentially wish to add him proper now.
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12:06 |
: (to not point out the standard service time video games)
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12:06 |
: Mike Elias acknowledged that this off season the Orioles will likely be rather more keen to spend on FA’s, do you might have any concept who may match? I assume some arms.
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12:06 |
: I can see the O’s taking a look at arms
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12:06 |
: Although the market isn’t *nice*
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12:06 |
: ZiPS had Musgrove much better than the remainder of the possible FAs
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12:06 |
: (You’ll be able to see that in Musgrove ZiPS piece)
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12:07 |
: However I can see them selecting up some inning-eaters
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12:08 |
: Observe that I’m anticipated DeGrom to truly take the choice given his harm
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12:08 |
: deGrom
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12:09 |
: However I may see midrange pitcher choices like Eovaldi or Taillon
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12:09 |
: Should you had been a GM who obtained to decide on which rebuild you’re inheriting between the Nats, Reds or A’s, which might you choose and why? (Baseball causes solely — the “chili” vs. proximity to your own home ought to make Cincinnati a wash.)
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12:09 |
: Dangit, can’t use driving distance?
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12:09 |
: Then in all probability DC, as a result of there I can *envision* the group spending cash once more
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12:09 |
: I imply, they *did* provide Soto greater than $400 million
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12:09 |
: Why do you assume Willson Contreras remains to be a Cub?
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12:09 |
: I believe they attempt to lengthen him
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12:09 |
: I can defend the Cubs not buying and selling Contreras or Happ if they didn’t just like the presents, however shouldn’t they’ve been completely happy to get a Circuit Metropolis reward card for Smyly?
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12:09 |
: Perhaps they didn’t get a present card!
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12:10 |
: Happ I can perceive since Happ isn’t a FA
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12:10 |
: That Brandon Drury pickup was HUGE
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12:10 |
: I wouldn’t go that far, however he’s helpful
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12:10 |
: Hey White Sox did one thing on the deadline — not firing Sleepy Eyes LaRussa
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12:10 |
: I imply, Reinsdorf didn’t promote
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12:10 |
: Converse consolation to me, Dan. Why has Ronald Acuña’s 5-year projection collapsed between final 12 months’s commerce worth checklist and this 12 months’s? Is it principally enjoying time (which is inherently extra unsure)?
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12:11 |
: Harm not totally baked in till return and his play is WAY down total
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12:11 |
: Can Angels do something in subsequent 2-3 years to develop into good?
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12:11 |
: Nothing sensible, no
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12:11 |
: How does ZiPS have any concept how good a fielder is that hasnt had any mlb enjoying time?
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12:12 |
: I’ve a complete zone-esque minor league system
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12:12 |
: I’ve the situation knowledge for each ball hit in each minor league recreation going again to 2008
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12:12 |
: and a probabilistic measure for each ball hit
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12:15 |
: Sorry, was in search of a graphic
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12:16 |
: For instance, listed here are grounder charges by vector
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12:16 |
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12:17 |
: Do I commerce Ohtani this offseason? And if that’s the case, what % of the Soto return ought to I anticipate to get?
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12:17 |
: No, becuase you’d in all probability solely get half.
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12:17 |
: Assume Barrero can ultimately impression a significant league roster? That Ok fee seems fairly scary.
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12:18 |
: I’m more and more pessimistic. His plate self-discipline numbers have collapsed within the minors this 12 months, together with every part else
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12:18 |
: I nonetheless don’t perceive why the Yankees traded Montgomery for an incredible defensive CFer who’s on the IL with plantar fasciitis. Please provide your take.
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12:18 |
: He must be again. Playing cards are being cautious.
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12:18 |
: Which fan base ought to have much less hope: Rockies or Royals?
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12:18 |
: Rockies
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12:19 |
: The Royals have a craptacular plan that wants every part to go proper, however typically they land on free parking
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12:19 |
: And once they’re good, they’ve the understanding to reinforce that
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12:19 |
: when the royals had their second, they DID make trades so as to add expertise
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12:19 |
: The Rockies simply shuffle alongside randomly.
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12:20 |
: Gimme a crappy plan mixed with boldness than no plan mixed with indolence
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12:20 |
: Very long time Rockies fan who is completely disillusioned by Rockies entrance workplace. Iglesias, Colome, Kuhl, Estevez all quickly to be free brokers, however not moved for any future gamers…put me out of my distress!
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12:20 |
: I’m not allowed to homicide folks, I feel.
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12:21 |
: However right here’s my assortment of Hearthstone-Rockies pictures.
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12:21 |
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12:21 |
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12:22 |
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12:22 |
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12:23 |
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12:23 |
: For individuals who don’t get the final reference, the Rockies held a pizza occasion on the commerce deadline as an alternative of doing something
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12:24 |
: Persons are sleeping on Profar this season, dude’s rockin a 126 wRC+ and projected to complete with ~3.7 fWAR. He’s in all probability opting out this winter, proper?
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12:24 |
: I feel it’s possible
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12:24 |
: He can in all probability beat 1/7.5 with a ten mutual possibility, which is what he has if he doesn’t decide out
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12:24 |
: Let’s play make imagine — Hosmer opts out. How a lot does he get as a free agent?
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12:26 |
: ZiPS would provide him one-year, $2.3 million.
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12:26 |
: I get the A’s transferring however is Las Vegas actually marketplace for baseball or simply a straightforward mark to get stadium funding?
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12:26 |
: Latter
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12:26 |
: Who may/ought to the M’s goal within the offseason so as to add a bat? The farm is fairly gutted to make a commerce now.
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12:27 |
: This isnt one of many extra thrilling FA years
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12:28 |
: Abreu as DH can be enjoyable
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12:28 |
: Should you can settle who performs the place with none disasters, Swanson or, assuming opt-out occurs, Bogaerts
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12:29 |
: (I’d attempt to transfer JP to 2B for Swanson, not for Bogaerts, so who is aware of who would get pissed)
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12:29 |
: What group has a greater file in 2025 – Padres or Nationals? (Please say Nationals, I would like to be ok with this case.)
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12:29 |
: Nationals BUT YOU MADE ME
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12:29 |
: It’s actually arduous to inform with a lot uncertainty
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12:30 |
: The Padres may go doomsday clock for finish of 2024
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12:30 |
: Rutschman is already prime 10 in catcher WAR in half the video games however would love greater than 5 homers in 50+ video games!
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12:30 |
: DONT BE GREEDY
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12:30 |
Padres Push In All Their Chips, Agree to Deal for Juan Soto and Josh Bell” you acknowledged that “(12 months-by-year projections for Wooden and Susana are sadly past ZiPS’ scope at this stage of their careers.)” What’s the tipping level the place ZiPS is ready to do year-by-year projections on gamers? Wooden has solely has a pair hundred PAs at low-A up to now, is it a matter of simply having a bigger pattern at low-A (or beneath) or would he must have performed at A+? or AA?
: Out of your Article on Aug 2nd “ |
12:30 |
: It’s principally the place I’m comfy
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12:30 |
: I don’t like projecting hitters till a full season of excessive A and pitchers till they’ve not less than SOME AA time
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12:31 |
: not less than, not sufficient to do 12 months by 12 months readouts
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12:31 |
: as a result of the volatility is MASSIVE for these guys
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12:31 |
: Simply comfy sufficient with the imply WAR totals for the prospect rankings
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12:31 |
: How vast do you imagine the hole is between the highest and backside groups in terms of growing and making use of analytical instruments and fashions?
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12:31 |
: Actually smaller than 20 years in the past
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12:32 |
: A foul entrance workplace now — let’s say the Royals — can be within the prime tier in 1995
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12:32 |
: Rockies are poorly run regardless of the period
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12:32 |
: Did the Dodgers make a mistake in not including one other excessive leverage reliever?
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12:32 |
: I feel it’s a risk
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12:34 |
: Hi there Dan, it looks as if some gamers had been simply in the proper place on the proper time, comparable to Jose Altuve and the way he ended up getting signed by the Astros. Who do you assume one of the best participant(s) is who by no means had the chance? Not somebody like Grady Sizemore for instance, who was derailed by accidents; and never somebody who was a hyped prospect however then simply by no means produced, like Mark Appel (although he presently he has 1.74 ERA with the Phillies?!?). However somebody who appeared like they may have been actually good however simply by no means obtained the possibility to both get referred to as up or get a full-time job. Anybody come to thoughts?
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12:34 |
: All time? That’s arduous, it is dependent upon what you contemplate an excessive amount of of a chance.
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12:34 |
: Roberto Petagine by no means actually obtained constant playign time
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12:34 |
: Greg LaRocca had a a lot smaller window
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12:36 |
: Scott McClain needs to be on that checklist
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12:39 |
: Karl Pagel
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12:39 |
: Brian Dopirak
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12:39 |
: sorry, simply pondering of names right here
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12:39 |
: What do my cat associates do?
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12:40 |
: Final I noticed them, Constantine was sitting on the kitchen counter as a result of he was getting hungry, Cassiopeia was on a blanket in a visitor bed room, and Mercutio was bullying Justinian over the fishing pole that may be a lengthy fluffy yellow measuring tape with a bell on the finish
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12:40 |
: The Rays can be in hassle for doing little on the deadline if not for the Pink Sox, White Sox, and Guardians doing (web) nothing to assist themselves proper?
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12:40 |
: Yeah, it wasn’t essentially the most thrilling deadline for the Rays
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12:41 |
: Contemplating the return the Reds obtained fir Mahle, would you might have favored to have seen Mike Elias beat that? Underneath management for subsequent 12 months as effectively made him enticing in my eyes.
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12:41 |
: Meh
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12:41 |
: I’d reasonably the O’s hand over cash in FA than prospects
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12:41 |
: How do you view Bloom as a GM up to now? I assumed this may be extra of a retool whereas rebuilding the farm system, however the returns on the Betts commerce are beneath cromulent, the Renfroe swap is a meh, and the “large” cash Story signing isn’t trying too scorching. Is that this a case the place it’s 5 years in earlier than he’s completed shedding all of the earlier contracts/gamers? If Devers doesn’t get prolonged, it’s a tricky tablet to swallow watching the quantity of younger expertise that’s left over the previous couple years.
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12:41 |
: I feel it’s arduous to say up to now; I feel he’s additionally underneath a variety of possession constraints
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12:41 |
: name it an incompelte
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12:42 |
: For instance, I’ve religion foundation to imagine that possession insisted on a participant who may contribute now for Betts
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12:42 |
: With simply 93 video games above A+ for Gunnar, are you comfy with the service time assetments? For me, I can type of see either side to this.
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12:43 |
: Right here’s what it comes all the way down to for me
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12:43 |
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12:43 |
: If the reply is shrug and sure, then it’s service time
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12:46 |
: He’s a 21-year-old who can play shortstop and a .939 OPS at AAA. What precise talent will he develop AAA now exterior of merely beating the pitchers up much more?
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12:46 |
: That’s the query one has to reply
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12:46 |
: I’m not essentially saying YOU must reply it
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12:46 |
: What’s your opinion on the Ruf commerce? Have seen reactions starting from what are the Mets doing to this commerce isn’t nice for both group
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12:46 |
: I feel it’s high-quality
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12:46 |
: Mets wish to win now and now they’ve a platoon of huge grownup son and enormous grownup uncle
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12:46 |
: If Davis hits higher, he can simply be a beginning DH subsequent 12 months for Giants perhaps
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12:47 |
: and whereas three prospects went to Giants, it’s not like these had been PROSPECTS
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12:47 |
: Vital simulation request: Are you able to run a WWE tag group of Juan Soto and Scott Boras vs. the Lerner household?
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12:47 |
: I may. I have already got Juan Soto helpful!
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12:47 |
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12:48 |
: Must make him a brand new uni in fact
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12:48 |
: Gratuitous
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12:48 |
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12:49 |
: Why are sunsets prettier than sunrises?
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12:49 |
: Since you’re in all probability not going to work after the previous
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12:49 |
: Ideas on the Brewers’ DFAing Lamet?
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12:50 |
: I’m stunned that they did it so shortly
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12:50 |
: deGrom says he wont take the choice tho, and if continues to appear like deGrom I don’t see how he’s not gonna get a greater deal
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12:50 |
: Oh, I missed that he mentioned that!
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12:50 |
: Clint Frazier’s web page is lacking.
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12:51 |
: He began going by his center title, Jackson, just a few months in the past
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12:52 |
: I’ve at all times been inquisitive about instances of gamers dealing with their outdated group for the primary time. For instance, Jordan Montgomery’s first STL begin is towards NYY this weekend. In instances like that, does both group acquire an inherent benefit over the opposite? Does Montgomery have really feel for what his former teammates can’t hit so he can inform his new rotation-mates? Do Yankee catchers inform different Yankee hitters what Montgomery likes to throw in sure conditions?
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12:52 |
: Truthfully, I’ve by no means really researched that individual situation
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12:52 |
: It could be enjoyable to take a look at although
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12:52 |
: Why do the Braves regularly signal their gamers to relative bargains?! IT’S NOT FAIR! I’m not crying you’re!
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12:52 |
: No less than this was a good deal!
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12:52 |
: That Albies deal…
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12:53 |
Christian Encarnacion-Strand not a lot of a prospect per the scouting report, however he has completed nothing however hit. Is a scouting replace on the way in which?
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12:53 |
: There was a midseason one!
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12:53 |
: He’ll definitely get a ZiPS this 12 months
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12:53 |
: when Zips runs extension analyses, does it use a sliding scale of {dollars} per warfare or is it a 1:1 ratio? For instance, a participant with a excessive likelihood of offering lower than one WAR would have worth nearer to substitute stage for these seasons however a a lot larger $ per WAR for seasons of three+ projected WAR?
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12:54 |
: The factor is that after the primary win, $/win is *nonetheless* sorta working
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12:54 |
: the factor is, it ALWAYS ought to have been non-linear
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12:54 |
: but it surely’s at all times acted linear, roughly
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12:54 |
: that appears to be altering, most for mediocre gamers
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12:54 |
: The Nats would have been ecstatic if Soto would have agreed to that underneath market deal, however don’t you assume it was designed to shift blame? “Hey, we tried?” $440 million appears extra acceptable for 10 years, not 15. If Soto turned *that* down, then they may legitimately say they tried.
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12:55 |
: They in all probability ought to have simply supplied 10 as a result of years 11-15 for ANYONE is basically low worth due to uncertainty
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12:55 |
: I’m undecided you provide half-a-billion bucks for PR
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12:55 |
: The place can followers discover public defensive metrics for Minor Leaguers past the easy assists, errors, performs, and many others? I do know of Clay Davenport’s website, however any others?
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12:55 |
: It’s really type of arduous
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12:55 |
: there isn’t a lot on the market
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12:55 |
: How lengthy had been organizations utilizing deeper analytics earlier than basic baseball fandom realized how essential that they had develop into?
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12:56 |
: Not that lengthy actually
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12:56 |
: you return to the 80s, whiel there have been at all times a pair numbers guys hanging round
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12:56 |
: like Eddie Epstein
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12:57 |
: however the analytics *had been* rudimentary
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12:57 |
: and actually, the 90s sabermetric group was forward of groups
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12:57 |
: on the time
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12:57 |
: Moneyball actually *did* assist to extra shortly modernize entrance workplaces than they might have in any other case
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12:57 |
: does Rodon decide out this off season, if that’s the case, are Cardinals, Rangers…anybody else prime locations?
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12:58 |
: I feel he does, however I kinda anticipate the Giants to drop an enormous extension provide earlier than finish of season
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12:58 |
: To be truthful–half the Soto return remains to be vital. That’s how large it was.
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12:58 |
: However I feel the Angels have the concept Ohtani is AS worthwhile
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12:58 |
: He’s not. You get half the time
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12:58 |
: Does MJ Melendez provide extra worth as an OF or catcher?
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12:58 |
: c
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1:00 |
: Do you might have a tackle what’s occurring with Luis Robert and why the White Sox feedback on the scenario are so convoluted? Is it simply HIPAA compliance? Or one thing extra?
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1:00 |
: The issue is that MLB’s CBA, finally verify, solely permits group’s to reveal *employment-related* accidents
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1:00 |
: so there’s this bizarre kabuki the place they’ll’t actually SAY {that a} participant is out with COVID or one thing except the participant’s cool with it
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1:01 |
: Ronny Mauricio ranked #17 in your pre-season ZiPS 100. How a lot do you anticipate him to fall with the poor stroll fee and call points this season?
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1:01 |
: a bunch
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1:01 |
: What are your Qualifying Supply predictions?
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1:02 |
: I’m not leaking an article I haven’t even considered but! lol
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1:02 |
: Do you assume the Cardinals did proper by not together with Carlson in a commerce to get Soto or do you imagine they made a mistake in doing so?
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1:02 |
: I feel the place the Cardinals had been unwilling was Carlson AND an enormous bundle
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1:02 |
: The factor is, the Cardinals usually are not gamblers.
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1:02 |
: They’re the regular, cautious sorts.
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1:03 |
: The Cardinals calmly and coolly calculate their pot odds
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1:04 |
: Whereas the Padres see JTs and a pair folks limping in and aggressively elevate
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1:04 |
: Am I so unsuitable for desperately wanting a Cardinals/Jays WS only for the takes?
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1:04 |
: No, chaos is at all times an possibility
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1:04 |
: Extra prone to fall off a cliff after 2024: Padres or Brewers?
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1:04 |
: Padres actually
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1:05 |
: Merely primarily based on what they’ve now, not future selections
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1:05 |
: 4 of their 5 starters are FA this 12 months or subsequent
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1:05 |
: and some of the possible replacements for one, Gore, is a Nat
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1:05 |
: On that be aware, I’ve a busy afternoon, so I’ve to maintain this to an hour right now.
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1:05 |
: Thanks for coming all!
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1:05 |
: Keep in mind, you may at all times hit me up with stuff on Twitter!
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1:05 |
: I don’t chew except you’re Murray Chass
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Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on numerous radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
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