Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/18/22

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2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:01
Ben Clemens: As a heads up, I used to be on trip till final Wednesday (Kauai, pretty), and am hermetically sealed in a container of Meg’s design that solely lets me have a look at commerce worth questions for the following week
2:01
Ben Clemens: Additionally there’s no baseball happening
2:01
Ben Clemens: So if you happen to’ve ever needed to ask me off-topic questions, now’s a good time, however let’s additionally discuss some Juan Soto to start out off
2:02
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna want a couple of minutes to cope with a fast canine factor, however after I come again, we’ll be answering 1,000,000 variations of this:
2:02
x2R: Soto? In what workforce do you wanna see him if one thing occurs? For some motive I’m within the Giants for the concept of that employees working with him.
2:05
Ben Clemens: Okay I’m again!
2:05
Ben Clemens: My two favourite choices (excluding the Cardinals) can be the Giants (I stay right here so that may be superior) and the Rays (b/c superb)
2:06
Ben Clemens: Mets may very well be enjoyable too, notably if he goes again to DC and torches the Nats
2:06
Visitor: Tatis for Soto. Who says no?
2:06
Ben Clemens: Padres, but in addition Nats
2:06
Billy: not likely their MO (no pun supposed) however what would a cardinals commerce bundle for Soto seem like?
2:06
Ben Clemens: It will begin with Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, or possibly Walker and Winn and Liberatore, or one thing that prospect huggers will hate
2:06
Sharps: Dropping Soto from an on-field perspective can be dangerous, however gamers acquired in return would assist cut back the sting.  As soon as he’s gone, although…who do the Nats market?  Who does commercials and who do my children look as much as?  That loss is method larger than the on-field efficiency.
2:07
Ben Clemens: What, you don’t like Maikel Franco?
2:07
Ben Clemens: Realistically, it’s Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Grey, and yeah, that’s not a variety of star energy
2:08
Appa Yip Yip: Who fetches an even bigger return, Soto or Ohtani?
2:08
Ben Clemens: Soto, for my part
2:08
Ben Clemens: Ohtani has one fewer 12 months remaining earlier than free company, which is a large deal
2:08
Ben Clemens: I’m actually fighting the place to fit Ohtani within the commerce worth collection
2:08
Ben Clemens: like, Ohtani or Jeremy Pena, who you bought?
2:09
CB: Is there a Soto to STL deal that doesn’t embody Walker or Gorman? I assume it will take no less than O’Neil or Carlson, Gorman, plus… (plus plus plus)?
2:09
Ben Clemens: The nats aren’t gonna be searching for O’Neill esque gamers, they usually shouldn’t be
2:09
Ben Clemens: if you happen to’re burning it down like they’re, guys whose main league clocks have began are simply not tremendous helpful
2:09
jas: Who do you see as real looking suitors for Soto? Or is there actually one? Exhausting to see any FO giving up the items it will take.
2:10
Ben Clemens: I’d put real looking suitors as: Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Mariners, Playing cards (tier 2), Rangers (tier 2), Giants (tier 3), Rays (tier 3)
2:10
Sharps: You get the cash to start out a twitch channel taking part in board video games.  You need to have one other sportswriter, a present participant, and one different baseball particular person of your alternative.  Who’s on it, and what recreation are you taking part in?
2:10
Ben Clemens: Love this query
2:11
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d need Keith Regulation because the sportswriter, as a result of I like his board recreation evaluations and in addition would love to choose his mind on the prospecting facet of the sport. Present participant must be Ohtani, to see if he actually is nice at the whole lot. After which, one different baseball particular person? Hunter Pence, as a result of he’s hilarious and in addition a giant gaming nerd
2:12
Ben Clemens: I feel we’d play Six Nimmt, and in addition possibly Seven Wonders
2:12
jas: Are there any arms out there that may remedy the Cardinals pitching issues? I feel they’ll be cautious of Montas after an damage
2:12
Ben Clemens: Yeah, Luis Castillo possibly? Completely agree on Montas
2:12
Malcolm Nunez: Which workforce buying Soto can be probably the most enjoyable? I’m going with the Twins.
2:12
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, that may undoubtedly be enjoyable
2:13
Sentimentalist: What sort of canine do you’ve got??
2:13
Ben Clemens: a rescue canine of indeterminate origin. We’re dumb and nostalgic so we did a type of canine DNA assessments, which pegged her as 50% American Bully (bizarre subset of Staffordshire terriers, mainly a pit combine) and 50% golden retriever
2:14
Ben Clemens: She’s only a 75 pound goofball with monumental separation nervousness points (:()
2:14
👽: This can be a greater query for Eric however I’m at all times inquisitive about this stuff. If Arias and Vaquero are on this draft, the place do they get taken?
2:14
Ben Clemens: Virtually definitely a query for Eric b/c I dunno who these individuals are
2:14
Inaccessible Rail: Hey, don’t FanGraphs writers get the All-Star break off?
2:14
Ben Clemens: This week and subsequent would be the busiest of the 12 months for me, no less than
2:15
Ben Clemens: However hey, I’m gonna watch the Derby
2:15
Malcolm Nunez: Alec Burleson, Moises Gomes, and Connor Thomas convey Frankie Montas to St. Louis?
2:15
Ben Clemens: I’m actually uncertain what Gomes’s worth is
2:15
Ben Clemens: Burleson + is smart, simply unsure of what the plus can be
2:16
Sodo Mojo: Do you assume a workforce just like the Mariners who’ve a bunch of room beneath the tax cap and might tackle a foul contract from the Nats have an edge within the Soto commerce talks?
2:16
Ben Clemens: No, b/c the groups which can be near the cap would go over it for Soto
2:16
Ben Clemens: If the Nats bundle Strasburg and Corbin in shifting Soto and get no return, they’ll burn the fanbase down, I don’t assume they’ll do this
2:16
Appa Yip Yip: What participant thus far have you ever been informed to maneuver up probably the most in your calls in regards to the commerce worth collection from the place you initially had them?
2:16
Ben Clemens: Let’s do some thriller gadgets, after which take a couple of guesses.
2:17
Ben Clemens: I moved: a 3rd baseman who seemed like a bust for the primary 500 PA of his profession
2:17
Ben Clemens: a younger hitter who didn’t make honorable mentions final 12 months
2:18
Ben Clemens: and a participant who received wildly unfortunate within the first two months of 2022
2:18
Ben Clemens: Good guess, however I simply had him actually excessive up the record to start out
2:19
Ben Clemens: No however the ongoing little bit of utilizing the improper nickname for cities is certainly one of my favourite baseball issues this 12 months
2:19
Ben Clemens: Two of three!
2:19
HYTT: To be honest, it’s best to have had Riley increased earlier than you have been informed to!
2:19
Ben Clemens: yeah…. two of those three I left a bit of low on objective to start out b/c I needed to get extra data on them
2:20
Ben Clemens: Riley, and the one folks haven’t guessed
2:20
Visitor: PSA: don’t push your self too exhausting working outdoors in the summertime warmth. I did and I really feel terrible.
2:20
Ben Clemens: extremely precious PSA
2:21
Trent Grisham: How regarding am I? Clearly I’m nonetheless younger sufficient to work issues out however I don’t appear to be bettering on my passive strategy on the plate and my protection has seemingly cratered.
2:21
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume there’s a lot concern in regards to the protection, however the bat is clearly very worrisome
2:21
Ben Clemens: I’m of the opinion that he’s a league common bat however he began out so terribly this 12 months
2:21
Ben Clemens: he’s really a participant I received some downward suggestions on, and I didn’t have him notably excessive to start with
2:21
Justin: sure… the San Francisco summer time warmth is brutal 😉
2:22
Ben Clemens: Haha properly not for me, per se
2:22
Ben Clemens: However wine nation warmth will be scorching, and it was muggy as hell in Kauai
2:22
Epstein’s Mom: This all [*gestures around at all Soto things*] appears far, far too painful for Nationals followers.  They actually let Bryce Harper get away in FA, and the fan base may no less than say, “Yeah properly we’ve got Juan Soto AND saved cash!”  If Soto leaves, it’s important to look again at letting Harper go in a completely completely different gentle.  You HAD Harper and Soto and now have … a greater funding for the homeowners?  Ick.

So i suppose my query is, by what share does the Nationals attendance and/or workforce paraphernalia gross sales shrink subsequent 12 months in the event that they eliminate Soto.

2:22
Ben Clemens: I don’t know how you can measure this, however a LOT
2:23
Ben Clemens: My mother switched to being a Nats fan after they got here to city (she’s from the realm and grew up an O’s fan)
2:23
Ben Clemens: I feel she would possibly find yourself switching again in the event that they fully blow it up and the O’s get good
2:23
Huge Pants Pascual: Andres Gimenez?
2:23
Ben Clemens: No to all 4, with blended goodness of guesses
2:24
Ben Clemens: the commenter with insane loyalty to United will get two out of three
2:24
Ben Clemens: flying to Newark, hilarious!
2:24
Dipoto: What do you assume Dipoto seems to be to do at deadline. SP is essential with Kirby working out of bullets and Gilbert seemingly want skipped from time to time. Wouldn’t Blake Snell make some sense? Padres reportedly wanting to maneuver his wage they usually have extra arms, and Snell desires to play in Seattle anyhow. Padres need hitting assist now. Would a Kelenic for Snell + Prospect make sense on either side? Groups shift prospects based mostly on positional want and mariners get the innings and upside
2:25
Appa Yip Yip: NGL my whole objective in asking the query was to fish for some Alejandro Kirk love.
2:25
Ben Clemens: Whoops, let’s do these so as
2:25
Ben Clemens: Received carried away
2:25
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that Kelenic and Snell will get swapped, with a prospect included
2:25
Ben Clemens: I feel the Mariners can be in on pitching, maybe NLC pitching, after which will make an effort on Soto
2:26
SFOtoEWR: Two of the best airports!* *don’t fly something however united
2:27
CB: Southwest is the perfect airline and that is the hill I’ll die on
2:27
Ben Clemens: Alaska for me
2:28
Jack: When it comes to Soto to NYY, Gleyber would appear to be one of many nicer items somebody may dangle, though most likely doesn’t line up with Washington’s timeline?
2:28
Ben Clemens: Gleyber wouldn’t be one of many nicer items somebody may dangle, and he additionally wouldn’t be on Washington’s timeline
2:28
Coliseum Dumpsterfire: Are you stunned on the total lack of pitching being drafted?
2:28
KGJR24: The place do you count on Logan Poteet to go?
2:28
Ben Clemens: I’m undoubtedly not the draft man
2:29
Malcolm Nunez: I’ve modified my thoughts. Seattle is probably the most enjoyable touchdown spot for Soto.  I need him and Rodriguez taking part in collectively for the following 15 years
2:29
Josh: How in regards to the Guardians as a Soto darkish horse candidate? Want outfield offense badly and have a ton of younger center infield expertise. Might ship Andres Gimenez, Espino and extra. Clearly cash may very well be a problem right here…
2:29
Ben Clemens: think about the Guardians buying and selling for a participant with quick workforce management and a giant wage
2:29
Ben Clemens: I may use amusing in the present day
2:29
Jason N: Do you assume Soto is traded this season, or within the offseason?  Can the Nats pull collectively the entire in-depth information about different workforce’s prospects in a few weeks or ought to they wait till the offseason to have extra due diligence even when it reduces the gives since you solely get 2 championship runs as an alternative of three?
2:30
Ben Clemens: I feel he’ll be traded this season. If the Nats haven’t been pulling collectively in-depth information about different workforce’s prime prospects based mostly on the contingency of buying and selling Soto, they need to hearth their scouting division
2:30
Insert Witty Identify Right here: Take a look at all of the wealthy folks in right here who can nonetheless afford to fly!
2:30
Travis: I completely forgot Austin Riley is just 25. Is prime Riley a possible 50 HR risk?
2:30
Ben Clemens: Yeah, undoubtedly
2:31
Ben Clemens: Kinda wild that he’s solely 25
2:31
GA Blood: Has there been any dialogue about somebody revisiting Craig Edwards’ seminal articles on prospect valuation? They’re approaching 4 years previous, so it is likely to be attention-grabbing to see if something has modified.
2:31
Ben Clemens: Yeah, it’s price doing
2:31
Ben Clemens: It’s most likely a me factor
2:32
Ben Clemens: However I’d be tremendous pleased if another person did it as an alternative
2:32
Ben Clemens: In any other case, possibly an offseason concept? It’s a variety of work
2:32
The Actual Ben Clemens: talking of needing laughs, it will be hilarious if that is the 12 months that KC lastly trades Merrifield for the time being his worth is on the lowest it’s ever been
2:32
Ben Clemens: there’s no accounting for GMDM
2:33
Jason N: What do the Nats want so as to add to Soto to get Volpe away from the Yanks?
2:33
Ben Clemens: Boy, Yankees followers are hilarious
2:33
Ben Clemens: it’s Volpe plus, not vice versa
2:33
Malcolm Nunez: These chatters have been brainwashed.  There aren’t good airways, or airways worthy of being a favourite.  They’re all horrible, and exist with no competitors attributable to federal funding. These chatters are stooges for the socialism-for-business-but-not-people of Late Capitalism.
2:33
Ben Clemens: I feel stooges is a bit harsh, however yeah, it’s extra about least dangerous
2:34
KGJR24: Finest participant beneath 27 in AL and NL?
2:34
Ben Clemens: hmmmmm…. Alvarez and Soto, I suppose
2:34
SFOtoEWR: Possibly you’re a stooge for not with the ability to detect an oz of humor ?
2:34
Boing: Who has the very best wRC+ by the top of their careers: Soto, Vlad, or Alvarez?
2:34
Ben Clemens: I’ll take Soto, however Alvarez is nearer
2:35
Scott: Given the Nationals state of affairs and the chance of shedding him as a free agent, isn’t this the perfect transfer anyway?
2:35
Ben Clemens: the perfect transfer is to signal him!
2:35
Ben Clemens: The Nats aren’t really funds constrained. They’re working a $139 million payroll
2:35
Ben Clemens: that’s gonna go down subsequent 12 months, and proceed to go down
2:35
Ben Clemens: they may bump up in opposition to the tax simply in the event that they needed
2:36
Ben Clemens: having top-of-the-line gamers in baseball after which letting him go away is dumb, for my part
2:36
Shaggy: Does a bundle of Mayer, Bello, Yorke and Duran get the Nats consideration for Soto?
2:36
Ben Clemens: Yeah, most likely? I feel it’d want a bit of extra however I’m not assured in my prospect evaluations there
2:36
KGJR24: I’m with on Alvarez for positive, he’s a beast. I lean in direction of Tatis when wholesome.
2:36
Ben Clemens: He was my different consideration however that when wholesome is doing a variety of work
2:36
Wes: I’m sorry, but when SFOtoEWR thinks that being a stooge means not with the ability to detect humor, then I do know of three stooges that they should be launched to
2:37
Travis: Tatis for Acuna, who says no
2:37
Ben Clemens: Topical query that I’m unsure of the reply on
2:37
Sharps: Tatis for President, who says no
2:38
Ben Clemens: Morbo prefers to run for galactic dictator, I imagine
2:38
Preller: I’m not buying and selling 12 years of Tatis for two of Soto. Come on.
2:38
Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s an apparent Padres say no for my part
2:38
Ben Clemens: However I additionally don’t assume the Nats would do it!
2:38
Morbo: Sure, the puny human is appropriate
2:38
NobleHelium: Ought to the Yankees supply Matt Carpenter a contract extension?
2:39
Jim Bob: Do you see any of those closers getting traded?: G Soto, D Bednar, S Barlow?
2:40
Ben Clemens: No, sure, sure
2:40
Baseball fan: Trevor Rogers and Jazz for Soto – who says no?
2:40
Ben Clemens: I imply, the Nats
2:40
Ben Clemens: I like the various Soto commerce packages
2:41
Ben Clemens: there are the irrationally gentle ones — like, Volpe for Soto plus worth is simply not gonna occur
2:41
Ben Clemens: the I kinda get it however improper concept ones (this one is like that — I feel it’s gentle however I feel each Rogers and Jazz have loads of worth)
2:41
Ben Clemens: after which those that truly come closest to what I feel the Nats need, which is simply x workforce’s prime 4 prospects
2:41
The Actual Ben Clemens: come on everybody clearly the perfect bundle for Soto is Frazier and Andujar
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m unsure Soto is sufficient for Andujar
2:42
Ben Clemens: that man’s a future corridor of famer
2:42
Sharps: Slightly than the specifics, would you go for lottery tickets or low-risk/low reward prospects because the Nats?
2:42
Ben Clemens: why would you select? Go for high-likelihood prime prospects
2:42
Ben Clemens: You’re buying and selling Juan Soto!
2:42
polk: Are any gamers apart from Soto going to be traded?
2:43
Ben Clemens: When we’ve got talked about it internally, we’ve targeted on Contreras, Soto, Montas, and Luis Castillo as the perfect gamers with affordable chance of getting traded
2:43
Sodo Mojo: If you’re buying and selling for Soto and it’s important to take the Strasburg or Corbin contract which one would you are taking?
2:43
Ben Clemens: Simply much less cash, and I’m pessimistic about Strasburg’s well being, which sucks
2:44
SFOtoEWR: Mariners going for Castillo appears good proper ?
2:44
Ben Clemens: Might completely see that
2:44
fan: When it comes to a prospect supply for Soto.. The Pads look like mixture of MLB prepared sorts and excessive rating A ballers proper? Abrams, Ruiz, Campy, Hassel, Wooden, ect
2:44
Will: Rangers appear to have greatest combo of prospect high quality and depth + timeline to make the Soto deal
2:44
Dave: Clearly, the perfect supply for Soto is Tristan Thompson + Shumpert + Nets decide
2:44
Dave: Effectively, possibly not after the Gobert deal
2:45
Ben Clemens: I do know this isn’t a basketball chat, however goodness gracious I don’t get the Rudy Gobert dela
2:45
Appa Yip Yip: Soto for Kevin Durant straight up everybody wins 👍
2:45
Cardinals: Is there any real looking bundle St. Louis may commerce for Soto that you’d assume is an excessive amount of?
2:46
Ben Clemens: Certain. Let’s say that the Nats ask for Walker, Winn, Therefore, Gorman, Libby, and Carlson
2:46
Ben Clemens: that’s an excessive amount of for positive
2:46
Scott: At what level will the Austin Nola commerce find yourself as one of many all-time heists (France, and so on for a 0.0 WAR participant)?
2:46
Ben Clemens: and that doesn’t even embody Munoz!
2:46
Insert Witty Identify Right here: Haven’t heard any DeGrom feedback but.  How excited are you for his return in lower than two weeks?!
2:46
Ben Clemens: Oh man, a lot
2:46
Ben Clemens: I’m watching each deGrom begin this 12 months
2:46
Ben Clemens: I’ve missed it a lot
2:47
DMcKee: Is a bundle of Matsumoto, Katoh, Kiyomiya and Renato Nunez sufficient to convey Soto to the Nippon Ham Fighters?
2:47
Dave Cameron: Don’t quit on Nola simply but!
2:47
Ben Clemens: Nola has time to alter the narrative, however man do I like Ty France
2:47
Ben Clemens: and Munoz too
2:48
Ben Clemens: I sort of see why the Padres made that commerce, however it has not labored out properly thus far
2:48
HappyFunBall: Corbin is no less than a purposeful pitcher. He’s an enormous overpay for what he provides you, however no less than he provides you one thing. Strasburg’s contract is throwing cash in a gap.
2:48
Ben Clemens: Yeah…. as many commenters have additionally identified, you can simply jam him in at nearer and hope one thing clicks
2:48
Nuke Laloosh: Assist me out right here, I can’t determine why any of the 30 groups shouldn’t attempt for Soto?
2:48
Ben Clemens: Mainly if you happen to aren’t going to supply him a contract (and plenty of groups aren’t even when they’ll afford it)
2:48
Ben Clemens: he’s solely round for two.5 extra years
2:49
Ben Clemens: so if you happen to’re the Pirates, and also you’re gonna miss the playoffs with or with out Soto and aren’t concerned with including payroll
2:49
Ben Clemens: properly, what’s the purpose?
2:49
Justin: extra common query impressed by watching degrom – do you like to look at nice pitching on television, the place you may recognize the motion of all of the pitches, or would you continue to wish to see it stay?
2:49
Ben Clemens: I went to so many deGrom begins after I lived in New York
2:49
Ben Clemens: It’s simply an incredible ambiance
2:50
Sharps: Nice remark Appa Yip Yip. U made all people within the chat higher in the present day which provides to your legacy.
2:50
Ben Clemens: boy do I like Kevin Durant
2:50
Russo: Are folks overestimating what the Nats can get for Soto? Individuals are throwing out 4 prime 100 prospects together with a prime 10-15 man and that’s unprecedented.
2:50
Ben Clemens: We’re going to seek out out fairly quickly!
2:51
Ben Clemens: I feel that’s unprecedented, but in addition that somebody like Soto getting traded is unprecedented
2:51
Ben Clemens: so, even steven
2:51
Nuke Laloosh: Will or received’t, that is smart…however all SHOULD proper (together with signing him too)?
2:52
Ben Clemens: That’s an possession query, and I’d say yeah. However given funds constraints, no. If you happen to can persuade your proprietor that placing Soto in the midst of your lineup for the following 20 years and constructing round him is definitely worth the cash, then it’s best to attempt to commerce for him
2:52
Russo: Is Soto actually an unprecedented commerce chip? Admittedly this was 15 years in the past however Miguel Cabrera received traded, and for 2 prime 10 prospects. But it surely was two prime 10 prospects after which guys outdoors of the highest 100.
2:52
Ben Clemens: Cabrera might be the closest comparability within the final 30 years
2:52
Ben Clemens: commerce markets are fairly completely different now than they have been then, however yeah, that’s possibly the perfect instance
2:53
Ben Clemens: however yeah, two prime ten prospects is fairly good! I used the Sale deal as one other comp, and that received a highly-regarded #1 total prospect plus good different items
2:53
Dakota mckee: Add Thomas Jefferson to the Soto bundle than the commerce can be unpresidented
2:53
Ben Clemens: simply as long as they don’t commerce Teddy
2:53
Appa Yip Yip: What, in your opinion, are the s tier greens of the world? What about s tier fruit?
2:53
Ben Clemens: now HERE is a query
2:54
Ben Clemens: S tier veggies for me: broccoli, arugula, corn
2:54
Ben Clemens: there are many A tier veggies, after all, however these are the three I take advantage of most frequently and love
2:56
Ben Clemens: S tier fruits? blackberries and apples
2:56
aloha: I commerce Soto for a day’s hike on the Napoli Coast path.
2:57
Ben Clemens: I did the Hanakapi’ai Falls hike, I’m unsure I’d commerce Soto for it however I extremely recommend it
2:57
Ben Clemens: That was simply probably the most majestic waterfall I’ve ever seen
2:57
bron cena: Re the thriller 3B— is Moncada not the man described?
2:57
Ben Clemens: Moncada won’t be on the record, I assure it
2:57
Cito’s Mustache: Does the cash/contract facet of baseball ever get you down? Like, it’s kinda miserable figuring out wealthy homeowners deprive their followers of nice gamers to allow them to pocket extra money. There’s additionally the entire Minor League salaries factor. Or is the monetary facet of the sport simply one other ingredient of it that you just settle for and revel in protecting? Thanks, Ben.
2:58
Ben Clemens: It’s my least favourite a part of baseball
2:58
Ben Clemens: It’s humorous, you’d assume that coming to baseball from finance would make me like that half probably the most
2:58
Ben Clemens: But it surely’s kinda the alternative
2:58
Strawberry Bonds: Onions and garlic are the one s tier greens. There are a variety of different nice ones, however these two are key to so many recipes they’re on a tier of their very own – therefore s tier.
2:58
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that garlic is a vegetable, however onions have been an enormous miss on my half
2:58
Ben Clemens: computerized S tier, completely agree
2:59
CB: Is there any participant who – if added to the commerce block – may get the league extra scorching and bothered than Soto?
2:59
Ben Clemens: Yeah, for positive
2:59
Ben Clemens: Julio, Tatis, Acuna, Yordan, Vlad
2:59
Ben Clemens: simply to call 5
2:59
Ben Clemens: onion household usually
2:59
Ben Clemens: I’m counting shallots, white, purple, yellow, and scallions all as onions
2:59
Ben Clemens: I want to not
3:00
Ben Clemens: My go-to salad is arugula with a dressing of minced shallots, olive oil, lemon juice, and salt
3:00
Visitor: How a lot does Mike Trout fall on the record?
3:00
Ben Clemens: Lots, sadly
3:00
Ben Clemens: the well being points are nonetheless there, and he’s getting older and never any cheaper, and I’m truthfully beginning to fear only a bit about his contact charges
3:00
Brandon: Will the Soto commerce in the end come right down to what prime 15 prospect the Nats like most? Like if it’s Walker vs. Abrams vs. Alvarez, if the Nats simply want Walker, doesn’t that put Soto in STL?
3:00
Ben Clemens: Yeah I feel so
3:00
Ben Clemens: That makes this complete factor exhausting to handicap
3:01
The Actual Ben Clemens: how good would deGrom should be over an approx. 11-13 begin span to get official Cy Younger consideration
3:01
Ben Clemens: It’s simply not potential sadly
3:01
Ben Clemens: he put up 4.9 WAR in 15 begins final 12 months
3:01
Ben Clemens: and didn’t get official consideration
3:01
Ben Clemens: that’s top-of-the-line 15-start stretches of all time
3:01
Ben Clemens: 1.08 ERA, 45% strikeout price, 3% stroll price
3:02
Ben Clemens: if deGrom got here again and didn’t permit a single run all 12 months, possibly?
3:02
Morbo: I imply Jake arrieta received a cy younger for mainly the second half of a season and degrom is clearly higher
3:02
Ben Clemens: proper… however we’ve got an awesome instance of the truth that voters received’t vote for one thing like that
3:02
Ben Clemens: and it’s deGrom himself
3:02
bron cena: oh I misinterpret that lol. I assumed that was three descriptors of 1 man, a 3B who seemed like a bust for his first 500 PA, who’s younger and didn’t make HM, and received wildly unfortunate his first two months this 12 months
3:02
Ben Clemens: ohhhhhh that makes extra sense
3:02
Ben Clemens: Yeah it was three thriller gadgets
3:03
Ben Clemens: Moncada is an odd one. We had him off the record final 12 months and that was most likely improper. However I feel this 12 months it’ll be proper to depart him off
3:03
jas: Would the Reds commerce Castillo to the Cardinals? Would the Cardinals commerce future items to the Reds? Undecided who can be extra reluctant
3:03
Ben Clemens: I thikn they’d be keen to. The longer term is sooner or later. Now could be now. Do the factor htat helps you out probably the most
3:03
White Sox: Would Romas, Montgomery, Colas, and Vera be laughed at for Soto? Twenty eighth-Thirtieth system means not price an awesome deal, so add a fifth prospect?
3:04
Ben Clemens: it will be laughed at
3:04
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that including a fifth prospect would considerably change that
3:04
Ben Clemens: the Nats NEED to get again an enormous headlining prime title, for my part
3:04
AD: Remider within the Miggy commerce comp, Tigers took on Dontrelle Willis’ contract AND gave up two prime 10 prospects. If a workforce isn’t taking Corbin/Stras the highest 4 prospects appears legit to me
3:05
Ben Clemens: the Dontrelle contract wasn’t that atrocious, however yeah
3:05
RTJ: Soto to Crimson sox for X and who else?
3:05
Ben Clemens: why would the Nats need Bogaerts?
3:05
Ben Clemens: why would the Crimson Sox wish to eliminate Bogaerts?
3:05
One other Ben: enjoyable reality:garlic, onion, shallot, leek are all in the identical household. They’re alliums, or the lily household!
3:05
Ben Clemens: I had no concept
3:06
x2R: Is Shane McClanahan working free for the AL Cy Younger? Possibly Verlander?
3:06
Ben Clemens: My prime 5 are McClanahan, Wheeler, Gausman, Stop, Bieber in some order
3:06
Ben Clemens: Manoah and Cole deserve consideration to
3:06
Ben Clemens: But in addition, it’s July. The Cy winner will most likely be whoever pitches greatest within the second half
3:07
bron cena: Wheeler’s not within the AL
3:07
Ben Clemens: uh, I meant to say Verlander
3:07
Ben Clemens: that’s unusual
3:07
aloha: BTW, your columns are my favourite.  As is The Napoli Coast…in January/February from Chicago.
3:07
bron cena: If CHW was actually going for Soto, dialog Eloy Jimenez + Andrew Vaughn + prospects
3:07
Ben Clemens: yeah… I agree that the Sox would wish to start out by together with good main league expertise
3:08
Ben Clemens: and I really assume that’s powerful for the Nats, as a result of they’d most likely wish to flip it
3:08
Ben Clemens: That’s a a lot tougher factor to do in mid-season
3:08
RTJ: stealing this:

I’ve to confess that I wish to see the Angels purchase Juan Soto as a result of I’m legitimately curious if they’ll get 20 WAR from Trout/Soto/Ohtani in 2023 and nonetheless by some means go 79-83.

18 Jul 2022

3:08
Appa Yip Yip: I make arugula tomato salad with a yogurt tahini dressing (honey, salt, lemon juice, skinny with water) and it’s by no means not prime shelf. Arugula is definitely the perfect salad inexperienced.
3:08
Ben Clemens: yogurt + tahini is nice
3:09
Ben Clemens: Tahini is jsut nice
3:09
Ben Clemens: I make my very own chili oil, and a tahini + chili oil + acid of your alternative dressing is prime notch
3:09
Blake Seams: Who’s gonna bag a 30-30 season this 12 months? Julio, Tucker, neither, or each?
3:09
Ben Clemens: I’ll go together with each
3:09
Visitor: Would Mets should pay a divisional-rival premium in a Soto commerce, or would providing the perfect bundle be sufficient?
3:10
Ben Clemens: I actually don’t know. It’s uncharted territory. That’s an possession query wh en it’s a generational expertise like Soto, and the possession image is murky
3:11
Ben Clemens: However may you think about the bitterness within the fan base if Soto indicators an extension in Queens after which has an awesome profession there?
3:11
Arthur: Do the A’s get a small ransom for Laureano now he’s received an additional 12 months of management?
3:12
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so? I’ve him within the Trent Grisham tier of controllable however not adequate to fetch a staggering return
3:12
Ben Clemens: I feel the A’s would possibly commerce him, for positive, however I’m simply not an enormous believer within the bat long-term
3:12
Matt (Oceanside): Received to get my Soto commerce proposal in on behalf of the Dodgers. Do you assume Cartaya, Vargas, Busch, Miller, and Pepiot is sufficient?
3:12
Ben Clemens: I like 3 of tohse guys fairly a bit, and the opposite two are nonetheless good
3:13
Epstein’s Mom: I simply tried wanting up *on this web site* the place Soto ranks amongst lively place gamers in profession WAR by means of age 23 season.  Bryce Harper’s title didn’t come up, as a result of … he’s injured, so doesn’t depend as lively?  Looks like not the easiest way to measure ‘lively’ is being employed!

Oh, and the reply is he wants 0.7 WAR this season to catch Harper, and 17.1 to match Trout. #TroutFacts

3:13
Ben Clemens: ah yeah… ‘lively roster’ stuff is hard
3:14
Ben Clemens: we may do on 40-mans + 60-day IL or one thing? I dunno
3:14
Finnegan’s Seam-shifted Wake: In OOTP scouting parlance (however in actual life gamers), favor instruments or favor capability?
3:14
Ben Clemens: In actual life, favor capability
3:14
Ben Clemens: In my OOTP video games, favor instruments
3:14
Curious Jorge: Hypothetical about DeGrom: Let’s say he both doesn’t pitch in two extra seasons to be Corridor eligible, or he comes again and is a shadow of himself. Would he be the perfect pitcher of their peak to not make the Corridor?

And wwo is the perfect peak hitter to not make the Corridor?

(Or ought to I anticipate Jaffe’s chat?)

3:14
Ben Clemens: That is most likely a Jay query, however I feel that may make dG the perfect pitcher to not make the corridor
3:14
Ben Clemens: as for hitters, hm
3:15
Ben Clemens: what about my boy Hal Trosky Sr?
3:15
Doug: I heard the Nats want management. Hosmer for Soto straight-up?
3:15
Dakota mckee: Might Cody bellinger be a part of a (boring ass) dodgers deal for Soto as a possible title substitute? Or is his worth fully damaging at this level?
3:15
The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Deal neither workforce would do

Robert, Vaughn, Montgomery, Ramos for Soto…

Worth might be shut (due to complete years of management)….however, man…

3:15
Ben Clemens: I really would favor the Sox facet of that
3:16
Ben Clemens: Robert has exceeded my expectations within the huge leagues
3:16
Ben Clemens: as in, I feel the Sox can be giving up ‘an excessive amount of’
3:16
Ben Clemens: it’s nonetheless shut
3:16
Ben Clemens: however I feel Robert really has comparable commerce worth to Soto
3:16
hays: Does Santander fetch something helpful?
3:17
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel so
3:17
Ben Clemens: If you happen to’re a contending workforce with an outfield hole ( you, Padres), Santander is a pleasant bat who you may maintain round for some time
3:18
RTJ: I really requested that dG Q two weeks in the past to Jay: 3:06RTJ: Who’s the perfect SP to not make the corridor of fame attributable to accidents, and can or not it’s Jacob deGrom?
3:10
 Jay Jaffe: deGrom (42.4 WAR/39.8 Peak Adj/41.1 S-JAWS) is about 9 factors behind Johan Santana (51.7/45.0/48.3) and each are properly behind Wes Ferrell (60.1/47.5/57.3), who pitched simply 2,623 innings, with fewer than 600 outdoors of a 10-year stretch.
3:18
Mets fan: The place does Trea Turner signal? Looks like an ideal match for the Mets, particularly if Nimmo walks
3:18
Ben Clemens: I may see that, however I feel he’s almost certainly to stay with the Dodgers
3:19
Ben Clemens: They’ve some cash to spend, and although I do know he’s not really a California man, he looks as if a California man to me
3:19
Mets fan: He really stated he would like to play for the Mets…can’t assist however hope!
3:19
SFOtoEWR: Os gonna commerce Mancini?
3:19
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so. I’d maintain him if I have been them. The return wouldn’t be earth-shattering and he’s only a nice sentimental O
3:19
McKinley: Congrats, you’ve simply traded for Juan Soto!  What now?  Does $400 / 10yr get it achieved?
3:20
Ben Clemens: I tihnk that’s about proper. That’s the arbitrary deal I prompt in in the present day’s article, really
3:20
Ben Clemens: I dunno if he’d take it however that may require a lonnnnnn glook
3:20
fan: What do you assume Josh Bell is pulling as the perfect rental bat?
3:20
Ben Clemens: A pleasant prospect, or two attention-grabbing prospects
3:21
Pat: Mets have Lindor, why would they signal Turner?
3:21
Ben Clemens: not likely positive
3:21
Ben Clemens: however hey, Turner can play second
3:22
Todd Bonzalez: What would the Rockies do if they’d the privilege of buying and selling Juan Soto?
3:22
Ben Clemens: pay down a few of his arbitration awards to extract extra prospects
3:22
Ben Clemens: which is one thing I respect in regards to the Rockies; even after they do wildly complicated stuff like extending after which alienating Arenado, they went for a prospect return fairly than simply dumping wage
3:23
Phil: If you happen to have been an assistant GM in Washington and your job was to choose the variety of gamers within the return for Soto, after which different folks needed to work out a bundle with that quantity, what would you resolve was the best quantity?
3:23
PhilsPhan: Any perception into Mavis Graves, the HS LHP the Phils simply took within the sixth?
3:23
Ben Clemens: spectacular title
3:24
Ben Clemens: anagrams to VMS vagaries or huge Garv
3:24
Ben Clemens: savvier Mags, if you happen to’re searching for a participant comp to Magneuris Sierra
3:24
Alby: What’s hilarious about flying out of Newark? It was the one method I may get to France for 2 years.
3:24
Ben Clemens: It’s simply my least favourite of the three NY airports to fly out of
3:24
Ben Clemens: not that any of them are nice
3:25
Visitor: I don’t assume I’ve ever been searching for a participant comp to Magneuris Sierra
3:25
Ben Clemens: Your loss, buddy
3:25
Small essential: What’s a small however essential commerce that happens? I’m seeing a Robertson return to the BX. And EWR is trash. Trash that can be far
3:26
Ben Clemens: Robertson to NY is smart. What in regards to the one I simply made up, Santander to the Padres?
3:26
Ben Clemens: David Bednar to the Mets
3:26
Pat: Magglio Ordonez is the perfect Maggs!
3:26
Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s an excellent level
3:26
Ben Clemens: I’ve no protection aside from the one-g two-g distinction
3:26
Visitor: Facet word – is there a “most miserable participant” for a draft decide to be comped to? Not a man that was really terrible however one who would elicit a response of “Oh…”
3:26
Ben Clemens: Kyler Murray
3:27
Ben Clemens: however um…. if somebody gave me a Mark Prior comp I’d be unhappy
3:27
Ezra: Hello very long time reader first time author, would Santander to the Pads get Tatis?
3:27
Phil: Commerce proposal: Soto for the Orioles’ conceding on the countless MASN dispute.
3:27
Ben Clemens: I dunno which is much less believable however I like each
3:28
Ben Clemens: alright, thanks everybody for an exquisite chat in the present day, however I’m goin to go begin getting ready lunch
3:28
Ben Clemens: Right now we’re performing some leftover collard inexperienced pesto my spouse made, plus veggies and rice
3:28
Ben Clemens: needs to be scrumptious
3:28
Ben Clemens: might all your own home run derbies be Alonso-esque
3:28
Pedro: Soto to Russia.  Putin leaves Ukraine
3:28
Ben Clemens: Okay nice one final commerce
3:29
Ben Clemens: Have an awesome draft and all star week, everybody


 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.




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