The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2022 NFL season with a brand new quarterback for the primary time since 2007. Newcomers Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder will battle for the beginning quarterback job because the Falcons rebuild their roster. Let’s look at the Falcons’ present file prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the NFC South, NFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case said and are appropriate as of Aug. 8 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Atlanta Falcons file prediction 2022
Following the discharge of the NFL schedule, Caesars has offered odds and spreads for 13 of the Falcons’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based mostly on these numbers, Atlanta is projected as favorites in zero video games, underdogs in 12, and a push in a single. If their first 13 video games of the season match these predictions, the Falcons may have a 0-12-1 file following Week 14 of the 2022 marketing campaign.
That’s fairly the drop for a group that went 7-10 in 2021. The NFC South has improved across the Falcons, whereas this group took a substantial step backward. On high of buying and selling Ryan, the Falcons additionally misplaced star receiver Calvin Ridley to a one-year suspension for playing on NFL video games.
With expectations low, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith should concentrate on making incremental enhancements that spotlight little successes. There’s not a pathway to the Falcons being a superb group in 2022.
Their objective is to seek out as many long-term contributors as they’ll after which add a franchise quarterback in 2023 if Ridder shouldn’t be the reply.
Falcons odds, picks, and props
Now we all know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Falcons on a week-by-week foundation. Let’s have a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, convention, and the Tremendous Bowl.
- Falcons win whole: 5 (over +125, underneath -150)
- Falcons to have fewest wins: +400
- Falcons lowest scoring group: +500
- NFC South winner: +3500
- NFC winner: +10000
- Tremendous Bowl winner: +20000
The Falcons may have a tough time profitable video games, and oddsmakers have favored the franchise to be the second-worst group within the league. This seems to be like an correct evaluation of their expertise degree and upside. There are solely a handful of fascinating playmakers on both aspect of the ball.
If there may be an avenue for a shock season, Mariota might want to play like he did earlier in his profession. Having Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Cordarrelle Patterson is a strong surrounding solid. There’s not simply a lot depth exterior of them.
The protection is extra expert within the again finish in comparison with the line of defense and linebacking corps. That’s going to be a problem. Whereas having high quality defensive backs issues, they’ll’t cowl for a nonexistent cross rush.
Falcons MVP odds and participant props
With out a lot hope of manufacturing an MVP, our high Falcons betting odds revolve round their participant props and rookie awards. Few groups can supply as a lot alternative to supply because the lowly Falcons. Quantity is a good factor for postseason awards and participant props.
Marcus Mariota +10000
- Offensive Rookie of the 12 months
Drake London +800
- Defensive Rookie of the 12 months
Arnold Ebiketie +5000
- Drake London regular-season receiving yards
Over/Below 764.5 (-115)
- A.J. Terrell regular-season interceptions
Over/Below 2.5 (over -105, underneath -125)
Sadly, we don’t have choices to guess on any prop involving Mariota, Patterson, or Pitts proper now. These could be key gamers price monitoring to see if strains come obtainable. For now, we’ll bounce on bets involving London and cornerback A.J. Terrell.
With Russell Gage in Tampa Bay and Ridley off the energetic roster, there’s an enormous alternative for London to stroll right into a state of affairs the place he can log 1,000 yards in 12 months 1. Gage caught 66 passes for 770 yards, and Ridely produced 281 yards off 31 receptions in 2021.
Dropping Ryan will imply the standard of targets will drop, so the effectivity of the highest receivers received’t be replicated. Pitts, London, and Patterson are clearly the highest receivers. Even in a worst-case state of affairs, Arthur Smith ought to have these three once more dominating the goal share.
Terrell established himself as a Professional Bowl-caliber expertise in 2021. He completed with three interceptions however posted elite protection stats regardless of his cross rush falling to lifeless final in sacks. We’ll additionally need some motion on him since he’s enjoying Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston 4 occasions this yr.
Falcons 2022 picks
We don’t have any positively-skewed bets for the Falcons, however they’re dangerous sufficient to contemplate for some distinctive props. As a result of the NFC South has three groups making an attempt to win, the Falcons are already behind the curve with their mentality. Their roster can be considerably behind their friends, and the commerce deadline may additional strip them down.
For instance, buying and selling Patterson and cornerback Casey Hayward make an excessive amount of sense.
Regardless, the Falcons will probably be a bottom-five group barring a quarterback rising as a long-term resolution. I extremely doubt Mariota is that man after his quite a few accidents and troubles enjoying aggressively. Ridder has just a little promise because of his athleticism and arm expertise but additionally lacks anticipation and accuracy.
The mix of an inefficient passing sport and porous cross rush will doom the Falcons. They’re clearly a bottom-three roster alongside Houston and Chicago. I’m placing a full unit on this being the worst group within the league in 2022.
1u: Falcons underneath 5 wins (-150)
1u: Falcons lowest scoring group (+500)
1u: Falcons fewest wins (+400)
The pessimism across the Falcons stops right here. Their high expertise will produce as a result of Smith has proven all through his tenure with Tennessee as their offensive coordinator and his first season in Atlanta that he’ll feed his finest gamers.
And not using a Pitts or Patterson prop, I’m shopping for into London getting a big workshare. Mariota beforehand favored working with bigger-bodied receivers in Tennessee. Even Ridder has expertise with tall and quick receivers at Cincinnati, as he typically linked with Alec Pierce.
London’s 764.5 receiving yard line is an efficient one for bettors. The one means he doesn’t hit this quantity is that if the quarterback state of affairs is way worse than we anticipate or he suffers a severe damage. However going off what Mariota has completed so far in his profession and the favorable scheme Smith has created, London ought to see over 100 targets and simply surpass this yardage whole.
Terrell’s interception whole is all the time going to be a tricky guess. He had three picks final yr however shouldn’t be a ball-hawking nook. He’s all the time across the ball, however turnovers are unpredictable.
I nonetheless just like the over because it’s so modestly set, and the schedule he’s set to face might be reckless with the ball. Along with enjoying Winston and Mayfield 4 occasions, Atlanta can even face Drew Lock/Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, and Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett.
1u: London over 764.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Terrell over 2.5 interceptions (-105)